636 
FXUS61 KPHI 190244
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1044 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE LATE THIS EVENING
WILL PASS JUST EAST OF NEW JERSEY TUESDAY MORNING...ON ITS WAY TO
MAINE BY WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ON A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT LOW MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY.
EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN NORTHERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE
MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE TURN UP THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED BY 1AM AND THE
WORST OF THIS STORM HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH JUST A GLAZE OR SNOW
TO GLAZE REMAINING FOR PORTIONS OF E PA AND NNJ ALONG AND N 
OF I78.

WE'LL UPDATE THE PNS STORM TOTALS AS WE CAN. ALSO WE'LL
APPRECIATE GLAZE REPORTS. 

THANK YOU!

TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO RISE ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER CONTINUE SLOWLY RISING OR REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT.

AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA, THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, THE MAIN P-TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, AREAS FURTHER NORTHWARD MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND/OR SLEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE RAIN WILL START TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS THE REGION AND STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER NEW ENGLAND, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN UP AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30
MPH. SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION, WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, 
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD 
QUEBEC AND THEN EVENTUALLY OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER THIS 
WEEK. A NEW STORM SYSTEM MAY BE A FACTOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD USING HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A 
SMALL BLEND TOWARD THE MORE ROBUST GFS SOLUTION FOR A POTENTIAL 
STORM AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.  

WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY CFP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE 
FORMS ON THE FRONT OVER THE MID ATLC STATES. THIS BRING A POTENTIAL 
PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  THERE COULD BE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM 
KRDG TO KABE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE POCONOS AND NW NJ AND MOSTLY RAIN 
SHOWERS ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. 

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY FAIR AND COLDER WITH SOME SNOW 
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS AND FAR N NJ IN A CONTINUING COLD 
NW FLOW. 

SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FAIR AND NOT QUITE AS COLD.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WILL BE MONITORING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF 
A GULF COAST LOW AND ITS FUTURE PATH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR CONDS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE FOG WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDS
IN SPOTTY DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE LOW PPP CENTER.
HEAVIEST RAIN NOW IN NJ AND DE AND SLOWLY HEADING NEWD AS THE LOW
PPP CENTER THAT FOCUSES THE LOW LVL ESE JET MOVES NWD TOWARD LI. SNOW
AND ICE NJ OF I-78 DIMINISHES AFTER 1 AM. ELY SFC WINDS DIMINISH
DURING THE NIGHT.

TUE...LEFTOVER IFR IN THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE LIFR IN DENSE FOG
EVEN AT 12Z-13Z WITH ONE MORE PERIOD OF RAIN...THEN THE WIND BECOMES
WEST AND GSTS 22-28 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO
VFR FM W TO E. JUST A CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN A LATE DAY
SHOWER ASSTD WITH THE VORT MAX PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH FEW OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000. EXCEPTION
POCONOS WHERE MVFR CONDS IN A SNOW SHOWER MAY OCCUR. GUSTY WNW
WIND 20-25 KTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR TO START WITH CIGS AOA 5000 FT DEVELOPING IN THE 
AFTN.  POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS DURING LATE AFTN/EVE 
WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE RAIN OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS 
EXCEPTING KRDG/KABE NORTHWARD WHERE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ENVISIONED. W WIND 20-25 KTS TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY THEN A WSHIFT TO NW DURING WED
EVENING. 

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000
FT AND A WNW WIND G 20-25 KTS EACH AFTN. EXCEPTION...BRIEF
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS POCONOS.

SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE ISSUED FOR ANZ 450 WHERE SPOTTY GALE FORCE GUSTS AT 44065 AND
SANDY HOOK WX FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MAYBE 2 OR 3 AM. 

OTRW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WITH ATLC SEAS RIGHT NOW NEAR 10 FT! 

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
WEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST AND THEN TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. WHILE THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT ON
TUESDAY, THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO START GUSTING OUT
OF THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA'S EXPECTED. GALE POTENTIAL HAS DROPPED A BIT...NO
WATCH ISSUED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THURSDAY...WNW FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY...WITH SCA POTENTIAL
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... CONTINUED NW FLOW BUT CONDITIONS WILL DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TUE AM. I95
CORRIDOR IS STILL A SMALL CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LATER TONIGHT. TOMORROW...ANY POSSIBLE MINOR SMALL STREAM
FLOODING RECEDES WITH LARGER MAINSTEMS IN NJ ON THE RISE BUT
WITHIN BANKFULL. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT 
ALONG AND JUST SE OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. IF WE GET MORE RAINFALL...
1 INCH IN 6 HOURS WOULD BE A PROBLEM FOR SOME OF THE FLASHIER
SMALL STREAMS ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR AND IF WE GET BASIN AVG OF
1.5 INCHES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY..THE MILLSTONE WOULD RESPOND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ060>062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ007-008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-451>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY 
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 1044P
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA/MIKETTA 1044P
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/MEOLA 1044P
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/MEOLA 1044P
HYDROLOGY...