636 FXUS61 KPHI 190244 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1044 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE LATE THIS EVENING WILL PASS JUST EAST OF NEW JERSEY TUESDAY MORNING...ON ITS WAY TO MAINE BY WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT LOW MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN NORTHERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TURN UP THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED BY 1AM AND THE WORST OF THIS STORM HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH JUST A GLAZE OR SNOW TO GLAZE REMAINING FOR PORTIONS OF E PA AND NNJ ALONG AND N OF I78. WE'LL UPDATE THE PNS STORM TOTALS AS WE CAN. ALSO WE'LL APPRECIATE GLAZE REPORTS. THANK YOU! TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO RISE ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA, AND TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER CONTINUE SLOWLY RISING OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS CAUSING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA, THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, THE MAIN P-TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, AREAS FURTHER NORTHWARD MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND/OR SLEET. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE RAIN WILL START TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND STARTS TO DEEPEN OVER NEW ENGLAND, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO TIGHTEN UP AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH. SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD QUEBEC AND THEN EVENTUALLY OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER THIS WEEK. A NEW STORM SYSTEM MAY BE A FACTOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD USING HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A SMALL BLEND TOWARD THE MORE ROBUST GFS SOLUTION FOR A POTENTIAL STORM AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY CFP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT OVER THE MID ATLC STATES. THIS BRING A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE MEASURABLE SNOW FROM KRDG TO KABE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE POCONOS AND NW NJ AND MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GENERALLY FAIR AND COLDER WITH SOME SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS AND FAR N NJ IN A CONTINUING COLD NW FLOW. SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FAIR AND NOT QUITE AS COLD. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WILL BE MONITORING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A GULF COAST LOW AND ITS FUTURE PATH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. OVERNIGHT...IFR CONDS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE FOG WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDS IN SPOTTY DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE LOW PPP CENTER. HEAVIEST RAIN NOW IN NJ AND DE AND SLOWLY HEADING NEWD AS THE LOW PPP CENTER THAT FOCUSES THE LOW LVL ESE JET MOVES NWD TOWARD LI. SNOW AND ICE NJ OF I-78 DIMINISHES AFTER 1 AM. ELY SFC WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. TUE...LEFTOVER IFR IN THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE LIFR IN DENSE FOG EVEN AT 12Z-13Z WITH ONE MORE PERIOD OF RAIN...THEN THE WIND BECOMES WEST AND GSTS 22-28 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR FM W TO E. JUST A CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN A LATE DAY SHOWER ASSTD WITH THE VORT MAX PASSAGE. OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH FEW OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000. EXCEPTION POCONOS WHERE MVFR CONDS IN A SNOW SHOWER MAY OCCUR. GUSTY WNW WIND 20-25 KTS. WEDNESDAY...VFR TO START WITH CIGS AOA 5000 FT DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS DURING LATE AFTN/EVE WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE RAIN OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPTING KRDG/KABE NORTHWARD WHERE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS ARE ENVISIONED. W WIND 20-25 KTS TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY THEN A WSHIFT TO NW DURING WED EVENING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT AND A WNW WIND G 20-25 KTS EACH AFTN. EXCEPTION...BRIEF POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS POCONOS. SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... GALE ISSUED FOR ANZ 450 WHERE SPOTTY GALE FORCE GUSTS AT 44065 AND SANDY HOOK WX FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MAYBE 2 OR 3 AM. OTRW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WITH ATLC SEAS RIGHT NOW NEAR 10 FT! WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME WEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. WHILE THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT ON TUESDAY, THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO START GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...SCA'S EXPECTED. GALE POTENTIAL HAS DROPPED A BIT...NO WATCH ISSUED BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THURSDAY...WNW FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY...WITH SCA POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... CONTINUED NW FLOW BUT CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECTING UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TUE AM. I95 CORRIDOR IS STILL A SMALL CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SMALL STREAM FLOODING LATER TONIGHT. TOMORROW...ANY POSSIBLE MINOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING RECEDES WITH LARGER MAINSTEMS IN NJ ON THE RISE BUT WITHIN BANKFULL. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST SE OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. IF WE GET MORE RAINFALL... 1 INCH IN 6 HOURS WOULD BE A PROBLEM FOR SOME OF THE FLASHIER SMALL STREAMS ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR AND IF WE GET BASIN AVG OF 1.5 INCHES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY..THE MILLSTONE WOULD RESPOND. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ060>062. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ101>106. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ007-008. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ009-010- 012-015. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ001. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-451>455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 1044P NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON/MEOLA/MIKETTA 1044P SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/MEOLA 1044P MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/MEOLA 1044P HYDROLOGY...