643 
FXUS61 KBTV 151726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT FRI MAR 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY 
THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR HIGHS AND MAINLY IN
THE TEENS FOR LOWS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1239 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY
HEAVY. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY MINOR
WITH A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS AND 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATER THIS EVENING. NONETHELESS THE
EVENING DRIVE TIME/COMMUTE HOME COULD GET TRICKY IN A FEW
SPOTS...ESP FROM THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WESTWARD WHERE ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR THE EARLIEST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED AS OF
THE NOONTIME HOUR...AND ESSENTIALLY SMALL ENOUGH SUCH THAT NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGES WILL BE EVIDENT IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. HAVE A
GREAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS THE NE CONUS
FOR SAT AND SUNDAY...WITH BLW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHCS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. OVERALL PATTERN WL FEATURE SEVERAL S/W'S MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA IN THE FAST NW FLW ALOFT...ALONG WITH RIBBONS OF ENHANCED RH.
THESE SUBTLE FEATURES WL MAKE POPS AND QPF FCST TRICKY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BTV 4KM LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON SATURDAY IN THE MTNS...ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW...GOOD
RH IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...AND SOME WEAK LLVL LIFT. OVERALL
DEPTH OF RH DECREASES AFT 18Z...WITH ONLY FLURRIES ANTICIPATED
BTWN 18Z AND 03Z. NEXT S/W ENERGY WITH ADDITIONAL RH ARRIVES AFT
03Z SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS
SYSTEM WL HAVE LESS RH AND BEST DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF OUR
CWA...BUT WL MENTION CHC POPS MAINLY IN THE MTNS. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FROM SAT INTO SUNDAY ACRS THE MTNS WL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES. ONLY A DUSTING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
VALLEYS. 1026MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTN...WITH DEEP DRY LAYER DEVELOPING. THIS WL RESULT IN CLRING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN -12C AND -15C
ON SATURDAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...85H TEMPS COOL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE TEENS MTNS TO MID/UPPER 20S VALLEYS...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BLW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL 
PROMOTE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA AND
PROVIDE US WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...BUT POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRONOUNCED WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP. GOING FORECAST OF SNOW LIKELY LOOKS
REAL GOOD GIVEN STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO WARM THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHAT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS MAGNITUDE OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM GETTING THIS
FAR NORTH...THUS KEEPING MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING FORECAST OF RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY ON
TUESDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THUS
LOOKING AT THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OF NOTE WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...FRNTL PASSAGE THRU EARLY EVENING WILL BRING
A MIX OF VFR DOWN TO IFR COND FOR A 2-3 HR PERIOD. VSBY DOWN TO
2-5SM IN -SW WITH 1SM POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM
BKN015-035. AFT SYSTEM PASSES...MAINLY MVFR SKIES WITH -SHSN THRU
12Z SAT...THEN BECM VFR THRU 18Z. WINDS SSW 10-20KTS BECM WNW
10-20KTS BY 00Z SAT...THEN NNW 5-10KTS BY 12Z SAT. 

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN