643 FXUS61 KBTV 151726 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 126 PM EDT FRI MAR 15 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR HIGHS AND MAINLY IN THE TEENS FOR LOWS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1239 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY MINOR WITH A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATER THIS EVENING. NONETHELESS THE EVENING DRIVE TIME/COMMUTE HOME COULD GET TRICKY IN A FEW SPOTS...ESP FROM THE SPINE OF THE GREENS WESTWARD WHERE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THE EARLIEST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED AS OF THE NOONTIME HOUR...AND ESSENTIALLY SMALL ENOUGH SUCH THAT NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WILL BE EVIDENT IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR SAT AND SUNDAY...WITH BLW NORMAL TEMPS AND CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL PATTERN WL FEATURE SEVERAL S/W'S MOVING ACRS OUR CWA IN THE FAST NW FLW ALOFT...ALONG WITH RIBBONS OF ENHANCED RH. THESE SUBTLE FEATURES WL MAKE POPS AND QPF FCST TRICKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BTV 4KM LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY IN THE MTNS...ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLW...GOOD RH IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...AND SOME WEAK LLVL LIFT. OVERALL DEPTH OF RH DECREASES AFT 18Z...WITH ONLY FLURRIES ANTICIPATED BTWN 18Z AND 03Z. NEXT S/W ENERGY WITH ADDITIONAL RH ARRIVES AFT 03Z SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WL HAVE LESS RH AND BEST DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF OUR CWA...BUT WL MENTION CHC POPS MAINLY IN THE MTNS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM SAT INTO SUNDAY ACRS THE MTNS WL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES. ONLY A DUSTING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEYS. 1026MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH DEEP DRY LAYER DEVELOPING. THIS WL RESULT IN CLRING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN -12C AND -15C ON SATURDAY...WITH COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...85H TEMPS COOL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE TEENS MTNS TO MID/UPPER 20S VALLEYS...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE DOWN FROM CANADA AND PROVIDE US WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SHOULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...BUT POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRONOUNCED WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP. GOING FORECAST OF SNOW LIKELY LOOKS REAL GOOD GIVEN STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO WARM THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS MAGNITUDE OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM GETTING THIS FAR NORTH...THUS KEEPING MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING FORECAST OF RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY ON TUESDAY...THEN TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. MAIN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THUS LOOKING AT THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OF NOTE WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...FRNTL PASSAGE THRU EARLY EVENING WILL BRING A MIX OF VFR DOWN TO IFR COND FOR A 2-3 HR PERIOD. VSBY DOWN TO 2-5SM IN -SW WITH 1SM POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN015-035. AFT SYSTEM PASSES...MAINLY MVFR SKIES WITH -SHSN THRU 12Z SAT...THEN BECM VFR THRU 18Z. WINDS SSW 10-20KTS BECM WNW 10-20KTS BY 00Z SAT...THEN NNW 5-10KTS BY 12Z SAT. OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. 06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/JN