291 
FXUS63 KIND 081442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
942 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 226 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013

DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS ACROSS THE STATE AND 
REACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR 
RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE 
STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO OUR 
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013

REDUCED SKY COVER AS ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS ARE ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL 
CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND EFFECTS 
OF MELTING SNOW COVER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 226 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS FOR
THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHALLENGE WAS HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND RAIN
CHANCES.

THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING
AND GRADUAL WAA WILL DEVELOP. OPTED TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MOS
TEMPS AS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A SNOWPACK
STILL INTACT ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE IN
EARNEST ACROSS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO START A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WITH
COLD FROPA. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SEVERAL DAYS
WORTH OF WARMER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO BE GENERATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 226 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013

ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE PASSING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY 
AROUND MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME 
RATHER FLAT AND WEST NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY 
DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST BY NEXT THURSDAY.

WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS 
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE 
POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM 
EXITS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE 
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE OVER BY THAT TIME.

WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DRY FOR NOW. A FEW ENSEMBLES 
SUGGEST A PRECIPITATION THREAT AROUND THURSDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY 
ARE STILL DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 925 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013

REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT KIND/KHUF/KBMG AS FOG HAS BURNED OFF 
THERE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE AREA 
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS LIGHT 
GRADIENT WILL SLOW THE MIXING OUT PROCESS. COULD BE SOME IFR 
RESTRICTIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT 
KLAF WHERE FOG IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY...SURFACE 
WINDS BELOW 8 KTS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 090000Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50