291 FXUS63 KIND 081442 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 942 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 226 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013 DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS ACROSS THE STATE AND REACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 942 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013 REDUCED SKY COVER AS ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS ARE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW COVER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE THOUGH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 226 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013 MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE DETAILS FOR THIS PERIOD. MAIN CHALLENGE WAS HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING AND GRADUAL WAA WILL DEVELOP. OPTED TO GO MUCH HIGHER THAN MOS TEMPS AS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A SNOWPACK STILL INTACT ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE IN EARNEST ACROSS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO START A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WITH COLD FROPA. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF WARMER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO BE GENERATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 226 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013 ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE PASSING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME RATHER FLAT AND WEST NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST BY NEXT THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE OVER BY THAT TIME. WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DRY FOR NOW. A FEW ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PRECIPITATION THREAT AROUND THURSDAY...BUT THE MAJORITY ARE STILL DRY. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 081500Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 925 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2013 REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT KIND/KHUF/KBMG AS FOG HAS BURNED OFF THERE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TAFS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY AS LIGHT GRADIENT WILL SLOW THE MIXING OUT PROCESS. COULD BE SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KLAF WHERE FOG IS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 8 KTS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 090000Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMF NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...SMF LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...JAS/50