102 
FXUS64 KMOB 011817 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1217 PM CST FRI MAR 1 2013

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF 
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 
4000-5000 FT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 
BROKEN VFR CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. 
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND 
AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS 
MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD A LONGWAVE TROF WEST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
VALLEY DOWN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
STREAKING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE 
HAS SHOWN SOME EROSION ON THE WEST SIDE OF CLOUD SHIELD AND SOME 
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN ZONES EASING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY 
SKIES FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ON 
THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT 
IS POSITIONED OVER THE NATION'S HEARTLAND. HEADING INTO 
TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A 
POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND A THIRD OF 
AN INCH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH FORECAST BUFR 
SOUNDINGS MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT A 
MENTION OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/OR SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES 
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH CRITICALLY LOW 
COMPOSITE THICKNESS VALUES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. NO MEASURABLE 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT...LOWER/MID 30S INTERIOR. 
MID/UPPER 30S COAST. /10

[WEEKEND]...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST 
STATES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE 
TO DIG SOUTHWARD AS THE ENTIRE TROUGH MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY...
WITH THE CENTER MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL BE ENFORCED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SENDING A DEEP ARCTIC AIR 
MASS ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS REMAINS A FAIRLY DRY SYSTEM...AND ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR 
PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL FORCING 
ASSOCIATED WILL THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO A SQUEEZE OUT ALL 
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IT 
APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH FOR 
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL 
SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AT 6 AM 
SATURDAY AND STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY 10 
AM. KEPT PERIODS OF FLURRIES IN FOR EARLY THE SATURDAY MORNING NORTH 
OF A WAYNESBORO MS-JACKSON AL-FLORALA AL LINE (NO SNOW ACCUMULATION) 
FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
IT WILL BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SKIES 
CLEARING.

STILL THINK THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ARE TOO WARM WHEN WE HAVE A 
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A CLOUD DECK...SO WENT 3 TO 
6 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 52 TO 55 DEGREES. LOW 
TEMPERATURES BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER INLAND 
AREAS AND NEAR 35 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. /22

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. 
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT 
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS 
RANGING FROM 60 TO 66 DEGREES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S 
TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID WEEK 
WITH HIGH RANGING BETWEEN 62 AND 67 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. /22

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND AS 
FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE EAST SIDE OF A 
STRONG...NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT 
MOVES SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. WITH INCREASE IN NORTHWEST 
FLOW...WIND SPEED MEETS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE OPEN 
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL ISSUE THE 
ADVISORY ON THE 4 AM PACKAGE. LOOK TO REMAIN WITHIN CRITERIA THROUGH 
NOON SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE. SEAS BUILDING WITH THE HIGHER 
SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE NORTHWEST 
FETCH. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST 
EARLY MONDAY WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SMALL SEA STATES. AN INCREASE IN 
ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AM WITH SEAS BUILDING 
AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST 
WINDS TUESDAY...BECOME NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A 
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A COOL AND MOSTLY DRY 
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A 
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND MODERATE MIXING HEIGHTS 
WILL RESULT IN GOOD AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...NO FOG. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL 
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA 
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 
     20 TO 60 NM... 

&&

$$