102 FXUS64 KMOB 011817 AAA AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1217 PM CST FRI MAR 1 2013 .AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 4000-5000 FT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN VFR CIGS EXPECTED AGAIN BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. 34/JFB && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ( .SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD A LONGWAVE TROF WEST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DOWN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAKING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE HAS SHOWN SOME EROSION ON THE WEST SIDE OF CLOUD SHIELD AND SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES EASING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS POSITIONED OVER THE NATION'S HEARTLAND. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT A MENTION OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/OR SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH CRITICALLY LOW COMPOSITE THICKNESS VALUES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT...LOWER/MID 30S INTERIOR. MID/UPPER 30S COAST. /10 [WEEKEND]...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD AS THE ENTIRE TROUGH MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE CENTER MOVING EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ENFORCED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SENDING A DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS REMAINS A FAIRLY DRY SYSTEM...AND ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WILL THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO A SQUEEZE OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE LOWER 30S AT 6 AM SATURDAY AND STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY 10 AM. KEPT PERIODS OF FLURRIES IN FOR EARLY THE SATURDAY MORNING NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO MS-JACKSON AL-FLORALA AL LINE (NO SNOW ACCUMULATION) FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IT WILL BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING. STILL THINK THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ARE TOO WARM WHEN WE HAVE A COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER A CLOUD DECK...SO WENT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 52 TO 55 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER INLAND AREAS AND NEAR 35 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. /22 .LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS RETURNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 60 TO 66 DEGREES. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID WEEK WITH HIGH RANGING BETWEEN 62 AND 67 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. /22 .MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND AS FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG...NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS. WITH INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...WIND SPEED MEETS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY ON THE 4 AM PACKAGE. LOOK TO REMAIN WITHIN CRITERIA THROUGH NOON SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE. SEAS BUILDING WITH THE HIGHER SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE NORTHWEST FETCH. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SMALL SEA STATES. AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AM WITH SEAS BUILDING AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY...BECOME NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10 .FIRE WEATHER...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A COOL AND MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND MODERATE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN GOOD AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...NO FOG. /22 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM... && $$