304 
FXUS62 KMHX 262134
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
434 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS 
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. SLOW MOVING 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CIRCULATE A WESTERLY FLOW OF 
COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC 
COASTS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...WARM FRONT PUSHING ACROSS AREA WITH TEMPS 
INTO MID 60S SRN SECTIONS WITH BACK EDGE OF MAIN PCPN SHIELD NEAR 
MRH-EWN-PGV LINE. SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NC 
WILL KEEP THREAT OF PCPN OVER AREA THROUGH EVENING. ISOLATED SVR 
THREAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS LINE PASSES BUT THREAT LOOKING LESS 
LIKELY WITH LACK OF CLEARING IN DRY SLOT. 

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NON-DIURNAL TREND THIS EVENING...THEN WILL DROP 
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. WENT WITH MOS BLEND...UPR 40S 
INLAND TO LOWER 50S COAST. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED 
WITH MODERATE SW WINDS...AS AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY BROAD 
CIRCULATION AROUND CONSOLIDATING LOW PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND. OFFSHORE 
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK INTO LOW-MID 60S INLAND AS 
COLDER AIR MASS IS HELD OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT AND THU. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THU WHICH WILL RESULT IN 
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN NC. FOR THUR...GUSTY 
WESTERLY WINDS IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL 
INTO THE 50S FOR THE AREA...AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OFF SRN 
APPALACHIANS HELPS DRY THE LOWER ATMS. FRONT/SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE 
THROUGH THUR EVE. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE 
LIMITED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT PRECIP MENTION...JUST AN 
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIRMASS. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED 
FRI GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS...AND LOWS IN THE 30S 
FRI MORNING. 

ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE THIS COMING WEEKEND AND 
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN CLIMO. HAVE UNDERSHOT COOLEST 
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO WARM BIAS TOWARDS CLIMO 
IN MOS OUTPUT. HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH LOWS NEAR 
FREEZING. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT INTO SAT 
NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH E NC...THOUGH ATTM MOISTURE 
PRESENCE IS QUESTIONABLE AS NO REAL SFC FEATURE IS PRESENT. GFS 
CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN SPINNING UP SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST... 
OPER GFS LACKS SUPPORT FROM ITS 26/00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN...OPER ECM AND 
ECM ENSEMBLE MEAN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS 
IN GRIDS. IF PRECIP OCCURS...COULD CERTAINLY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX 
INLAND AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
THE WINTRY MIX SAT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE TEMPS WILL BE JUST 
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST. UPPER TROUGH 
WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A SLIGHT WARMUP 
POSSIBLE BY TUE AS COLD UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION... 
THOUGH INDICATIONS ARE TO BE REPLACED BY REINFORCING COLD BY MID 
NEXT WEEK AS INDICIES INDICATE A CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMP PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE 
AROUND IFR/LIFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS 
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE 
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20Z-23Z OR SO. AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AROUND 
THAT POINT...SOME ISO THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL TO 
BE WITHIN A SHORT AND NARROW WINDOW HOWEVER. EXPECT MOST LINGERING 
PRECIPITATION TO TAPPER OFF BY 01-03Z OR SO. HAVE NOTICED  A DRY 
SLOT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN SC THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH 
OAJ/EWN BETWEEN 21-23Z. THIS MAY ALLOW CIGS/VSBYS TO COME UP TO MVFR 
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ANTICIPATE 
LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE THEREAFTER. CLEARING WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE 
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE 
AFTERNOON AS THEY VEER TO THE SE THEN SW BY LATE TONIGHT. CROSSWINDS 
MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH LLS AROUND 180 DEGREES/50KTS AT 2KFT THIS 
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA WITH SOME GUSTS STILL LINGERING INLAND.  ANTICIPATE WINDS TO 
PICK UP LATER TOMORROW MORNING ONCE MIXING INCREASES UNDER CLEAR 
SKIES. 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME INC 
IN CLOUDINESS WED NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY 
WINDS EXPECTED THUR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS FOR 
THE FRI THROUGH WEEKEND TIME PERIOD... WITH WINDS IN THE NW TO N 
DIRECTION. 


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO SPREAD 
OVER AREA LATE THIS AFTN WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING N AS LOW PRES MOVES 
N OVER INLAND SECTIONS. LATEST GDNC SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FCST WITH 
STRONG SE TO S WINDS THIS EVENING...BECOMING SW AND SUBSIDING 
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA WED...PRIMARILY 
OVER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS. 

LATEST WW3 AND SWAN/NWPS SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
10-13 FT THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AND WED. 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU. 
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS 
THE WATERS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AT TIMES. WSW WINDS 15-25KT 
WED NIGHT BECOME WLY THU. ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU 
NIGHT/FRI. GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS AND 
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS LOW MOVES OFF THE NE COAST. AN AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST SUN...THOUGH THERE IS STILL 
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE IN REGARDS TO 
POSITIONING...STRENGTH...OR IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. SHOULD 
DEVELOPMENT OCCUR...WINDS WOULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY 
ADVERTISED FOR SUN INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NO CHANGE TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTHEAST 
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF ALONG THE COAST WITH 
6 TO 8 FT BREAKERS EXPECTED.

SOME MINOR WATER RISES OF 1-2 FT WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
MAINLAND HYDE...MAINLAND DARE...BEAUFORT...AND PAMLICO COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-098-103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JBM/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JBM