304 FXUS62 KMHX 262134 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 434 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CIRCULATE A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...WARM FRONT PUSHING ACROSS AREA WITH TEMPS INTO MID 60S SRN SECTIONS WITH BACK EDGE OF MAIN PCPN SHIELD NEAR MRH-EWN-PGV LINE. SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL KEEP THREAT OF PCPN OVER AREA THROUGH EVENING. ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS LINE PASSES BUT THREAT LOOKING LESS LIKELY WITH LACK OF CLEARING IN DRY SLOT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NON-DIURNAL TREND THIS EVENING...THEN WILL DROP OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. WENT WITH MOS BLEND...UPR 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MODERATE SW WINDS...AS AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND CONSOLIDATING LOW PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK INTO LOW-MID 60S INLAND AS COLDER AIR MASS IS HELD OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT AND THU. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM TUE...LOW PRES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WED NIGHT THROUGH THU WHICH WILL RESULT IN TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN NC. FOR THUR...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE AREA...AS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OFF SRN APPALACHIANS HELPS DRY THE LOWER ATMS. FRONT/SHORTWAVE WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THUR EVE. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT PRECIP MENTION...JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIRMASS. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED FRI GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS...AND LOWS IN THE 30S FRI MORNING. ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE THIS COMING WEEKEND AND TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN CLIMO. HAVE UNDERSHOT COOLEST ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO WARM BIAS TOWARDS CLIMO IN MOS OUTPUT. HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH E NC...THOUGH ATTM MOISTURE PRESENCE IS QUESTIONABLE AS NO REAL SFC FEATURE IS PRESENT. GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN SPINNING UP SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST... OPER GFS LACKS SUPPORT FROM ITS 26/00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN...OPER ECM AND ECM ENSEMBLE MEAN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS IN GRIDS. IF PRECIP OCCURS...COULD CERTAINLY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE WINTRY MIX SAT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE TEMPS WILL BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A SLIGHT WARMUP POSSIBLE BY TUE AS COLD UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION... THOUGH INDICATIONS ARE TO BE REPLACED BY REINFORCING COLD BY MID NEXT WEEK AS INDICIES INDICATE A CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMP PATTERN. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... A POTENT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE AROUND IFR/LIFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20Z-23Z OR SO. AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AROUND THAT POINT...SOME ISO THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL TO BE WITHIN A SHORT AND NARROW WINDOW HOWEVER. EXPECT MOST LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO TAPPER OFF BY 01-03Z OR SO. HAVE NOTICED A DRY SLOT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN SC THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH OAJ/EWN BETWEEN 21-23Z. THIS MAY ALLOW CIGS/VSBYS TO COME UP TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ANTICIPATE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE THEREAFTER. CLEARING WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS THEY VEER TO THE SE THEN SW BY LATE TONIGHT. CROSSWINDS MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH LLS AROUND 180 DEGREES/50KTS AT 2KFT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS STILL LINGERING INLAND. ANTICIPATE WINDS TO PICK UP LATER TOMORROW MORNING ONCE MIXING INCREASES UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME INC IN CLOUDINESS WED NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THUR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE FRI THROUGH WEEKEND TIME PERIOD... WITH WINDS IN THE NW TO N DIRECTION. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER AREA LATE THIS AFTN WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING N AS LOW PRES MOVES N OVER INLAND SECTIONS. LATEST GDNC SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FCST WITH STRONG SE TO S WINDS THIS EVENING...BECOMING SW AND SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA WED...PRIMARILY OVER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS. LATEST WW3 AND SWAN/NWPS SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-13 FT THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AND WED. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM TUE...UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AT TIMES. WSW WINDS 15-25KT WED NIGHT BECOME WLY THU. ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT/FRI. GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS LOW MOVES OFF THE NE COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST SUN...THOUGH THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE IN REGARDS TO POSITIONING...STRENGTH...OR IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. SHOULD DEVELOPMENT OCCUR...WINDS WOULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR SUN INTO MON. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... NO CHANGE TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS ROUGH SURF ALONG THE COAST WITH 6 TO 8 FT BREAKERS EXPECTED. SOME MINOR WATER RISES OF 1-2 FT WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLAND HYDE...MAINLAND DARE...BEAUFORT...AND PAMLICO COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-098-103- 104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...TL/LEP MARINE...JBM/TL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JBM