535 
FXUS63 KOAX 182055
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINTER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN BRISK AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR BUT COLD CONDITIONS LINGER OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTH FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION
BRINGING IN GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. 12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS IN DEVELOPING A MAJOR WINTER
STORM FOR THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA WITH THIS
FORECAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL TO ISSUE FOR SOMETHING THAT FAR OUT BUT DUE TO MODELS
PERSISTENCE AND CONSISTENCY HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACT ON THE AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST 8-12 INCHES OF
SNOW MAY BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...BRISK EASTERLY WINDS 15-25MPH ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
CREATE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN RURAL AREAS. 12Z EURO SLOWER IN
TIMING AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS TOWARD
NORTHWEST MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SO SNOW
MAY LAST EVEN LONGER IF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT.

TEMPERATURES STAY COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE TEENS ON THURSDAY.
SNOW RATIO AVERAGE OF AROUND 14:1 INDICATED BY BUFKIT DURING THE
EVENT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

STORM SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW 
INCHES OF SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING...BUT 
OTHERWISE WINDING DOWN. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 
SYSTEM ARE FORECAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH THE NEW 12Z ECMWF 
COMING IN A BIT HIGHER AT 20 KTS WITH BETTER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM 
POTENTIAL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS A DIFFERENCE OF 
10 KTS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING 
POTENTIAL.

WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE 
FOR THE MOST PART. 

YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS 
REGION BY LATE WEEKEND BUT UNLIKE THE FIRST SYSTEM...MODELS ARE 
LACKING CONSENSUS LEADING TO DECREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. THIS 
SAID...WILL LEAVE INHERITED CHANCE POPS IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY 
TIMEFRAME FOR CONSISTENCY...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THIS SYSTEM REALLY 
HAS YET TO TAKE SHAPE AND BE SAMPLED ACROSS THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

EXPECT BAND OF SNOW TO BE EAST OF KOMA AND KLNK BY 18Z.

MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY
09Z AT KOMA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

FOBERT/KERN/MILLER