535 FXUS63 KOAX 182055 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 255 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINTER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING BUT STILL REMAIN BRISK AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR BUT COLD CONDITIONS LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. WINTER STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTH FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION BRINGING IN GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. 12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS IN DEVELOPING A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA WITH THIS FORECAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL TO ISSUE FOR SOMETHING THAT FAR OUT BUT DUE TO MODELS PERSISTENCE AND CONSISTENCY HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT ON THE AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST 8-12 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...BRISK EASTERLY WINDS 15-25MPH ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY CREATE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN RURAL AREAS. 12Z EURO SLOWER IN TIMING AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT SO SNOW MAY LAST EVEN LONGER IF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT. TEMPERATURES STAY COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE TEENS ON THURSDAY. SNOW RATIO AVERAGE OF AROUND 14:1 INDICATED BY BUFKIT DURING THE EVENT. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STORM SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE WINDING DOWN. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE FORECAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH THE NEW 12Z ECMWF COMING IN A BIT HIGHER AT 20 KTS WITH BETTER DOWNWARD MOMENTUM POTENTIAL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS A DIFFERENCE OF 10 KTS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING POTENTIAL. WITH EXPECTED SNOW COVER...HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE MOST PART. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEEKEND BUT UNLIKE THE FIRST SYSTEM...MODELS ARE LACKING CONSENSUS LEADING TO DECREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. THIS SAID...WILL LEAVE INHERITED CHANCE POPS IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR CONSISTENCY...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THIS SYSTEM REALLY HAS YET TO TAKE SHAPE AND BE SAMPLED ACROSS THE PACIFIC. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK. EXPECT BAND OF SNOW TO BE EAST OF KOMA AND KLNK BY 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 09Z AT KOMA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018- 030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ FOBERT/KERN/MILLER