185 
FXUS63 KLSX 160305
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
905 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013

WORKING ON A QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO WATCH AN AREA OF SN OVER WRN MO AHEAD
OF A VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER ERN NEB/KS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND
00Z/16 NAM AGREE WITH THIS S/W DIGGING PULLING THE AREA OF SN MORE
SWD THAN E OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED IF
AREA OF SN DOES NOT BEGIN TO MOVE MORE SWD AS FAR WRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA MAY BE BRUSHED BY THIS SN. WHILE SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THIS SN HAVE SEEN AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SN...IT IS DOUBTFUL
THAT ANY OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE THAN FLURRIES IF CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS HOLD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013
TONIGHT

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY MOVE 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...SPREADING 
A BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT BY DAYBREAK. MOS 
TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND 
SURFACE WIND. HAVE THEREFORE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV 
GUIDANCE.  

CVKING

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TAP THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A PARADE OF 
SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WELL.  
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE 
DIGS IN OVER THE ROCKIES.  LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL 
SUNDAY USHERING IN WARMER AIR WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK 
ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT 
PLAINS MONDAY WHICH DEVELOPS A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH 
DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT.  MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY 
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRINTING OUT 
1/4-1/2 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE THE THRESHOLD WHERE WE NEED TO 
WORRY ABOUT WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCHMOCKER RULE WILL BE IN 
EFFECT...CUTTING OFF PRECIP AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN WITH PERHAPS 
JUST A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO WRAP THINGS UP.  MOS TEMPS CONTINUE TO 
LOOK PRETTY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THO I HAVE SOME TROUBLE 
BELIEVING GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY.  AM 
STICKING WITH MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO THE OVERCAST SKY AND RAIN.

(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES 
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN HIGH DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST 
KICKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL.  MEANWHILE A VERY 
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THEN 
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THURSDAY MORNING...FORCING LEE SIDE 
CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW 
MEXICO/NORTHERN TEXAS.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP WILL RAMP UP LATE 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE 
CYCLOGENESIS.  THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...AND I 
LIKE THE SLOWER SOLUTION BETTER.  SLOWER IS USUALLY BETTER WHEN IT 
COMES TO CLOSED LOWS.  EITHER WAY...THURSDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY 
WET...SNOWY...ICY...AND/OR ALL THREE.  AM JUST KEEPING A RAIN/SNOW 
MIX GOING FOR RIGHT NOW UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE 
THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE AREA.  STORM LOOKS TO BE WINDING DOWN BY 
FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS 
AND COLDER AIR SPILLING DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH ERN KS THIS
EVNG BRINGING PATCHY...VFR LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL REMAIN W OF COU...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF FLURRY
IN COU THIS EVNG. MUCH OF THIS CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR OUT LATE TGT.
NWLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TGT AND SAT MRNG AS A LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS E-SEWD INTO MO. THE SFC
WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO A SWLY DIRECTION IN COU SAT AFTN...AND
TO A WLY DIRECTION IN UIN AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E
OF THIS AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...JUST SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS AT 6000 FT OR HIGHER TGT.
MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR OUT LATE TGT WITH ONLY SCT MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NWLY
SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TGT AND SAT AT NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10
KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT SAT EVNG AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES EWD
THROUGH STL.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX