185 FXUS63 KLSX 160305 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 905 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 853 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013 WORKING ON A QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. CONTINUE TO WATCH AN AREA OF SN OVER WRN MO AHEAD OF A VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER ERN NEB/KS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND 00Z/16 NAM AGREE WITH THIS S/W DIGGING PULLING THE AREA OF SN MORE SWD THAN E OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED IF AREA OF SN DOES NOT BEGIN TO MOVE MORE SWD AS FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY BE BRUSHED BY THIS SN. WHILE SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVED THIS SN HAVE SEEN AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SN...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE THAN FLURRIES IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HOLD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 327 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013 TONIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...SPREADING A BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT BY DAYBREAK. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WIND. HAVE THEREFORE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV GUIDANCE. CVKING && .LONG TERM... ISSUED AT 327 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013 (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ACTIVE PATTERN STILL ON TAP THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS WELL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE DIGS IN OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY USHERING IN WARMER AIR WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY WHICH DEVELOPS A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRINTING OUT 1/4-1/2 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE THE THRESHOLD WHERE WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT WINTRY PRECIP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCHMOCKER RULE WILL BE IN EFFECT...CUTTING OFF PRECIP AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN WITH PERHAPS JUST A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW TO WRAP THINGS UP. MOS TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THO I HAVE SOME TROUBLE BELIEVING GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY. AM STICKING WITH MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO THE OVERCAST SKY AND RAIN. (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN HIGH DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST KICKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THURSDAY MORNING...FORCING LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN TEXAS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP WILL RAMP UP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...AND I LIKE THE SLOWER SOLUTION BETTER. SLOWER IS USUALLY BETTER WHEN IT COMES TO CLOSED LOWS. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY WET...SNOWY...ICY...AND/OR ALL THREE. AM JUST KEEPING A RAIN/SNOW MIX GOING FOR RIGHT NOW UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE AREA. STORM LOOKS TO BE WINDING DOWN BY FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CARNEY && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 537 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2013 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH ERN KS THIS EVNG BRINGING PATCHY...VFR LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES THIS EVNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN W OF COU...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF FLURRY IN COU THIS EVNG. MUCH OF THIS CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR OUT LATE TGT. NWLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TGT AND SAT MRNG AS A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS E-SEWD INTO MO. THE SFC WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO A SWLY DIRECTION IN COU SAT AFTN...AND TO A WLY DIRECTION IN UIN AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E OF THIS AREA. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...JUST SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS AT 6000 FT OR HIGHER TGT. MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS WILL CLEAR OUT LATE TGT WITH ONLY SCT MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NWLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TGT AND SAT AT NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KTS...THEN BECOME LIGHT SAT EVNG AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES EWD THROUGH STL. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX