600 
FXUS64 KMEG 151728 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN
TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
CLOUD BASES REMAIN HIGH WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS...AND ADJUST
CLOUD COVER AND ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED. 

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...COOLEST IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS ARE BECOMING ENHANCED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EAST
ARKANSAS...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE ONLY GROUND TRUTH OF RAINFALL SO
FAR HAS BEEN AT SEARCY IN EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHERE 17 MINUTES
OF RAINFALL RESULTED IN NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION. DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 8000 FEET GIVING
PRECIPITATION AMPLE TIME TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES IS LIKELY ALL ANYONE WILL SEE TODAY...MAINLY
BEFORE NOON WITH NO ACCUMULATION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH KEEPING A
STEADY FLOW OF COOL DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION.

BY MIDDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH
ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY UNIDENTIFIABLE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN CLEAR SKIES IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...NORTH FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES
FROM WARMING TOO MUCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH.  

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH
ALLOWING TEMPERATES TO COOL RAPIDLY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE A
FEW FLURRIES TOMORROW AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IS MINIMAL.  

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. NEXT WEEK WE ARE LOOKING AT TWO STORM SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE MIDSOUTH THE FIRST MONDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY. BOTH
LOOK FAIRLY DYNAMIC ESPECIALLY THE LATER SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH...BUT THE SECOND LOW MAY BE CLOSER HELPING TO ENHANCE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WILL NOT ADD ANY STRONG
OR SEVERE WORDING TO THE HWO JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE POPS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES. GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK...SO IF THE CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT CONTINUES WE COULD SEE THE ADDITION OF STRONG OR SEVERE
WORDING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO POSSIBLY FOR MONDAY...BUT
MORE LIKELY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH MOIST LAYER BETWEEN
FL030 AND FL050 WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DAYTIME CUMULUS. NORTHERLY
TAIL WIND COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 KTS FOR THE
OUTBOUND LATE NIGHT CARGO DEPARTURE PUSH.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  53  29  45  31 /  20  10  10   0 
MKL  50  24  38  25 /  20  10  10   0 
JBR  48  27  42  29 /  10  10  10   0 
TUP  56  28  45  27 /  10  10  10   0 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$