600 FXUS64 KMEG 151728 AAA AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR AVIATION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013/ DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CLOUD BASES REMAIN HIGH WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS...AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. CJC PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013/ DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013/ DISCUSSION... EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...COOLEST IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS ARE BECOMING ENHANCED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR DOES SHOW A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE ONLY GROUND TRUTH OF RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN AT SEARCY IN EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHERE 17 MINUTES OF RAINFALL RESULTED IN NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 8000 FEET GIVING PRECIPITATION AMPLE TIME TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ONLY LIGHT SPRINKLES IS LIKELY ALL ANYONE WILL SEE TODAY...MAINLY BEFORE NOON WITH NO ACCUMULATION. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF COOL DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. BY MIDDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH ALONG WITH ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY UNIDENTIFIABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN CLEAR SKIES IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...NORTH FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPERATES TO COOL RAPIDLY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE A FEW FLURRIES TOMORROW AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IS MINIMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. NEXT WEEK WE ARE LOOKING AT TWO STORM SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE MIDSOUTH THE FIRST MONDAY AND ANOTHER THURSDAY. BOTH LOOK FAIRLY DYNAMIC ESPECIALLY THE LATER SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE SECOND LOW MAY BE CLOSER HELPING TO ENHANCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WILL NOT ADD ANY STRONG OR SEVERE WORDING TO THE HWO JUST YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK...SO IF THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT CONTINUES WE COULD SEE THE ADDITION OF STRONG OR SEVERE WORDING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO POSSIBLY FOR MONDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD....WITH MOIST LAYER BETWEEN FL030 AND FL050 WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DAYTIME CUMULUS. NORTHERLY TAIL WIND COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 KTS FOR THE OUTBOUND LATE NIGHT CARGO DEPARTURE PUSH. PWB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 53 29 45 31 / 20 10 10 0 MKL 50 24 38 25 / 20 10 10 0 JBR 48 27 42 29 / 10 10 10 0 TUP 56 28 45 27 / 10 10 10 0 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$