504 
FXUS64 KLUB 312342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
542 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013/ 

SHORT TERM...
FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED 
NEXT...AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE GLIDING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST 
FORCES THIS FRONT INTO OUR AREA. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY 
STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WITH THIS FRONT TRANSLATING INTO 
SURFACE WINDS BRIEFLY TO AROUND 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 
FRONT MAKING IT CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO-TEXAS STATE LINE BEFORE 
RUNNING OUT OF PUSH. LATEST PROJECTIONS STILL BRING THIS COLD FRONT 
THROUGH CHILDRESS CLOSE TO 6 PM...LUBBOCK 9 PM PLUS OR MINUS...THEN 
LESS CONFIDENCE REACHING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES MAYBE AROUND 
MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM. WINDS WILL TURN A CLOCK-WISE CIRCLE WITH SOUTHEAST 
LOW LEVEL COMPONENT BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW CHANCE FOR 
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST JUST WEST OF THE CAPROCK...MAINLY 
OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH NONE OF THE CURRENT HIGH 
RESOLUTION RUNS APPEAR TO BREAK OUT LOW CLOUD COVER. MOSTLY THIN 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ARCING INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES 
TONIGHT...SHOULD THIN FURTHER EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE A BIGGER ARCING 
SHIELD APPROACHES LATE ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT ALL-IN-ALL SHOULD BE BALLPARK NORMAL NOT FAR FROM 
EARLIER PROJECTIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE STUNTED BY COOLER AIR 
LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGHING LATE FRIDAY NEAR THE 
NEW MEXICO BORDER SHOULD BRING ABOUT MODEST WARMING ON THE CAPROCK. 
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AS THE  
REGION IS IMPACTED BY SEVERAL WEAK AND DRY FRONTS AND ABOVE AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURES.

THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS WEST TEXAS REMAINS UNDER SOME 
FORM OF NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. 
THIS STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE COLDEST OF THE AIR BOTTLED UP WELL 
TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH EACH DISTURBANCE ZIPPING THROUGH THE FLOW 
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A NORTHERLY WIND 
SHIFT AND MINOR COOLING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE FRONT WILL 
MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER EARLY MONDAY...ANOTHER LATE 
TUESDAY AND YET ANOTHER NEXT THURSDAY. NONE OF THESE FRONTS APPEAR 
TO TAP ANY PARTICULARLY COLD AIR...AND HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED 
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW 50S ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. 

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ODDS DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE. A 
PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN 
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT WEAK LIFT COMBINED
WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS /ASIDE FROM A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BRIEFLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES/ SHOULD KEEP THE
CHANCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AT BAY. BEYOND THAT...THE
GFS DOES GENERATE VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH THIS IS TIED TO RELATIVELY
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A FLAT UA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS DRIZZLE
OR A FEW SPRINKLES WOULD BE ALL THAT THIS PASSING WAVE COULD
MUSTER LOCALLY...AND HAVE RETAINED POPS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PERCENT.
EVENTUALLY...BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE FROM
THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH ITS IMPACTS /WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT/ ARE BEYOND THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  60  25  55  26 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TULIA         23  59  26  57  28 /   0   0   0   0   0 
PLAINVIEW     24  60  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LEVELLAND     26  63  28  61  30 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LUBBOCK       26  62  29  60  30 /   0   0   0   0   0 
DENVER CITY   28  63  32  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   0 
BROWNFIELD    29  63  30  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0 
CHILDRESS     24  51  29  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SPUR          28  59  33  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ASPERMONT     30  61  35  62  33 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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