504 FXUS64 KLUB 312342 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 542 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013 .AVIATION... WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST THU JAN 31 2013/ SHORT TERM... FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED NEXT...AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE GLIDING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST FORCES THIS FRONT INTO OUR AREA. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WITH THIS FRONT TRANSLATING INTO SURFACE WINDS BRIEFLY TO AROUND 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE FRONT MAKING IT CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO-TEXAS STATE LINE BEFORE RUNNING OUT OF PUSH. LATEST PROJECTIONS STILL BRING THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH CHILDRESS CLOSE TO 6 PM...LUBBOCK 9 PM PLUS OR MINUS...THEN LESS CONFIDENCE REACHING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM. WINDS WILL TURN A CLOCK-WISE CIRCLE WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL COMPONENT BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW CHANCE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST JUST WEST OF THE CAPROCK...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH NONE OF THE CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS APPEAR TO BREAK OUT LOW CLOUD COVER. MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ARCING INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT...SHOULD THIN FURTHER EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE A BIGGER ARCING SHIELD APPROACHES LATE ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ALL-IN-ALL SHOULD BE BALLPARK NORMAL NOT FAR FROM EARLIER PROJECTIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE STUNTED BY COOLER AIR LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGHING LATE FRIDAY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER SHOULD BRING ABOUT MODEST WARMING ON THE CAPROCK. RMCQUEEN LONG TERM... RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED AS THE REGION IS IMPACTED BY SEVERAL WEAK AND DRY FRONTS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS WEST TEXAS REMAINS UNDER SOME FORM OF NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THIS STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE COLDEST OF THE AIR BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH EACH DISTURBANCE ZIPPING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND MINOR COOLING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER EARLY MONDAY...ANOTHER LATE TUESDAY AND YET ANOTHER NEXT THURSDAY. NONE OF THESE FRONTS APPEAR TO TAP ANY PARTICULARLY COLD AIR...AND HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ODDS DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE. A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT WEAK LIFT COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS /ASIDE FROM A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE BRIEFLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES/ SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AT BAY. BEYOND THAT...THE GFS DOES GENERATE VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH THIS IS TIED TO RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A FLAT UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS DRIZZLE OR A FEW SPRINKLES WOULD BE ALL THAT THIS PASSING WAVE COULD MUSTER LOCALLY...AND HAVE RETAINED POPS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PERCENT. EVENTUALLY...BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE FROM THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH ITS IMPACTS /WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT/ ARE BEYOND THE END OF THE EXTENDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 22 60 25 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 23 59 26 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 24 60 27 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 26 63 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 26 62 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 28 63 32 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 29 63 30 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 24 51 29 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 28 59 33 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 30 61 35 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01