813 
FXUS61 KBTV 261738
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1238 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FAVOR SNOW
ACROSS THE WESTWARD-FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WHEN DRY
AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1229 PM EST SATURDAY...SMALL CHANGES TO BLEND IN OBSERVED
SKY/TEMP/WIND...AND TWEAK MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. A FEW
SPOTS...KBTV AND MT MANSFIELD...TRENDING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS TODAY.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS
MAINLY IN NEW YORK BY SUNDOWN...AND SPREADING INTO VERMONT THIS
EVENING. LOCAL FROUDE NUMBER BASED FORECAST TOOL INDICATES
BLOCKED LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND SNOW WILL STAY ON WESTERN SLOPES AND
TAPER OFF INTO THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE SPINE OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TROUGH DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WITH VERY LOW QPF AND COLD TEMPS EXPECTING ONLY DUSTING TO
TWO INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 427 AM EST SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL SEE DECREASING
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS VT AROUND
00Z...BEING EAST OF THE FA BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...CAUSING TEMPS TO DROP
TO AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE TEN. A FEW ISOLATED AREAS IN THE NEK
MAY SEE WINDS NEARING 10 MPH WITH TEMPS OF -3 AND LOWER...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF -20 AND COLDER TOWARD SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THIS PT ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED AREAS OF THESE COLD
WIND CHILLS AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY WINDS DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO...BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

SUNDAY WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. 500MB HTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
RISE. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR SATURDAYS MAX TEMPS IF NOT
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND. THE SFC HIGH
WILL CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE NIGHT...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS WILL WARM FROM ABOUT
-16C TO -8C BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NT MIN TEMPS NOT AS COOL AS
THE PREVIOUS NT...RANGING FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST
BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOT WILL BE NE VT AS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW...WITH SNOW LIKELY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
S AND W. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH M20S-L30S EVEN AS 925MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO NEAR -5C. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AS IT CONTINUES TO SNOW INTO MONDAY NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 427 AM EST SATURDAY...WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW. THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PUTTING MUCH OF THE AREA
IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM
SECTOR. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED...BUT ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ON WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
INCREASING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW LIKELY PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES AS A RESULT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WE RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A TREND BACK TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
NOWHERE NEAR THE COLD SNAP WE ARE NOW COMING OUT OF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
CLOUDS...THEN AT RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. CIGS SKC TO SCT250 THIS
AFTERNOON...TRENDING SCT/BKN FROM FL080-150 AT VALLEY
LOCALES...AND FL035-060 AT KMPV/KSLK THIS EVENING...THEN GENERALLY
SKC AFTER 06Z. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SHSN AT
KMPV/KSLK WITH PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE THIS
EVENING...BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED AT KSLK AT THIS TIME WHERE SOME
BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO
THE REGION WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TRENDING MVFR WITH OCCNL
IFR POTENTIAL AT ALL TERMINALS IN STEADIER LIGHT SNOWS.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH BKN/OVC
VFR/MVFR CIGS.

00Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHC OF RAIN/MIXED PCPN...TRENDING
ALL RAIN AS SECONDARY WARM AIR PUSH AND TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG