813 FXUS61 KBTV 261738 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1238 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE WESTWARD-FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WHEN DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1229 PM EST SATURDAY...SMALL CHANGES TO BLEND IN OBSERVED SKY/TEMP/WIND...AND TWEAK MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. A FEW SPOTS...KBTV AND MT MANSFIELD...TRENDING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS TODAY. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS MAINLY IN NEW YORK BY SUNDOWN...AND SPREADING INTO VERMONT THIS EVENING. LOCAL FROUDE NUMBER BASED FORECAST TOOL INDICATES BLOCKED LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND SNOW WILL STAY ON WESTERN SLOPES AND TAPER OFF INTO THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TROUGH DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WITH VERY LOW QPF AND COLD TEMPS EXPECTING ONLY DUSTING TO TWO INCHES. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 427 AM EST SATURDAY...TONIGHT WILL SEE DECREASING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS VT AROUND 00Z...BEING EAST OF THE FA BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...CAUSING TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE TEN. A FEW ISOLATED AREAS IN THE NEK MAY SEE WINDS NEARING 10 MPH WITH TEMPS OF -3 AND LOWER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF -20 AND COLDER TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS PT ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED AREAS OF THESE COLD WIND CHILLS AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND HOW QUICKLY WINDS DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO...BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. 500MB HTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RISE. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR SATURDAYS MAX TEMPS IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE NIGHT...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS WILL WARM FROM ABOUT -16C TO -8C BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NT MIN TEMPS NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS NT...RANGING FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOT WILL BE NE VT AS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW...WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE S AND W. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH M20S-L30S EVEN AS 925MB TEMPS INCREASE TO NEAR -5C. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AS IT CONTINUES TO SNOW INTO MONDAY NT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 427 AM EST SATURDAY...WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT PUTTING MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR. FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED...BUT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOULD HAVE SOME LOW LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AS A RESULT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WE RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A TREND BACK TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE COLD SNAP WE ARE NOW COMING OUT OF. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THIS EVENING WITH A FEW CLOUDS...THEN AT RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES BY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. CIGS SKC TO SCT250 THIS AFTERNOON...TRENDING SCT/BKN FROM FL080-150 AT VALLEY LOCALES...AND FL035-060 AT KMPV/KSLK THIS EVENING...THEN GENERALLY SKC AFTER 06Z. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SHSN AT KMPV/KSLK WITH PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE ONLY MENTIONED AT KSLK AT THIS TIME WHERE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TRENDING MVFR WITH OCCNL IFR POTENTIAL AT ALL TERMINALS IN STEADIER LIGHT SNOWS. 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DRY WITH BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. 00Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHC OF RAIN/MIXED PCPN...TRENDING ALL RAIN AS SECONDARY WARM AIR PUSH AND TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...JMG