138 
FXUS64 KHGX 220217
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
817 PM CST MON JAN 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF REASONING. MAIN CONCERN THIS
ISSUANCE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SURFACE FRONT HAS WASHED OUT ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER AND
WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS TAF MENTIONS
OF FOG IN FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHRINKING ACROSS THE REGION AM BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCERNED BY
THE FOG THREAT AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FORECAST DOWNWARD WITH THE
03Z UPDATE OR FOR THE 06Z TAF. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST MON JAN 21 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE THIS QUIET/MOSTLY DRY FCST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE WRN U.S.. THE APPROACH/
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE FROM THE CALI BAJA WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI. COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE TO
LOWER TEMPS BACK INTO THE NEAR NORMAL CATEGORY BY THE WEEKEND. BUT
IN THE MEANTIME STILL KEEPING TRACK OF A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT THAT
IS TRYING TO MOVE INTO SE TX THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINT
AND RH LEVELS NOTED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS NE TX SO FAR THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGES FROM THIS ONGOING AND
OVERALL TREND OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTN TEMPS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS
IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE MUCH STRONGER FRONT
FRI. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR LOWISH POPS WITH
THAT FROPA.

MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN STARTING
NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF
A TAD MORE STAID. WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH THE GFS IN THIS TIME FRAME
AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING A LITTLE BETTER OF LATE. 41

MARINE...
WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE COAST TODAY BUT STILL SUPPORT 
NE WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS ALTHOUGH 10KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT 
WINDS AND LOW SEAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE WED AND THROUGH THUR AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS SHOULD
BUILD SEAS TO MODERATE LEVELS ON THUR. GFS/ECMWF NOW SHOW COLD
FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST LATE FRI AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

39

AVIATION... 
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SET UP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA SO SE TX
TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE SOME LIMITED VSBY IN THE MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER. THING FOG WILL BE LIKE THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW TERMINALS HAVING RESTRICTED VSBY IN THE VLIFR/LIFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES...OTHERWISE MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL BE LIKELY. AFTER
FOG ERODES...SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  65  49  71  54 /   0  10  10  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  67  48  71  56 /   0  10  10  10  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  65  54  67  58 /   0  10  10  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...38