138 FXUS64 KHGX 220217 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 817 PM CST MON JAN 21 2013 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF REASONING. MAIN CONCERN THIS ISSUANCE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE FRONT HAS WASHED OUT ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER AND WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS TAF MENTIONS OF FOG IN FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINKING ACROSS THE REGION AM BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCERNED BY THE FOG THREAT AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FORECAST DOWNWARD WITH THE 03Z UPDATE OR FOR THE 06Z TAF. 38 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST MON JAN 21 2013/ DISCUSSION... LOOKS LIKE THIS QUIET/MOSTLY DRY FCST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE WRN U.S.. THE APPROACH/ PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE FROM THE CALI BAJA WILL HELP TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI. COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE TO LOWER TEMPS BACK INTO THE NEAR NORMAL CATEGORY BY THE WEEKEND. BUT IN THE MEANTIME STILL KEEPING TRACK OF A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT THAT IS TRYING TO MOVE INTO SE TX THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINT AND RH LEVELS NOTED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS NE TX SO FAR THIS AFTN. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGES FROM THIS ONGOING AND OVERALL TREND OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTN TEMPS AND FOGGY CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE MUCH STRONGER FRONT FRI. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR LOWISH POPS WITH THAT FROPA. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN STARTING NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF A TAD MORE STAID. WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH THE GFS IN THIS TIME FRAME AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING A LITTLE BETTER OF LATE. 41 MARINE... WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE COAST TODAY BUT STILL SUPPORT NE WINDS IN OFFSHORE AREAS ALTHOUGH 10KTS OR LESS. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE WED AND THROUGH THUR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO MODERATE LEVELS ON THUR. GFS/ECMWF NOW SHOW COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST LATE FRI AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 39 AVIATION... LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SET UP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA SO SE TX TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE SOME LIMITED VSBY IN THE MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER. THING FOG WILL BE LIKE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW TERMINALS HAVING RESTRICTED VSBY IN THE VLIFR/LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES...OTHERWISE MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL BE LIKELY. AFTER FOG ERODES...SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 44 65 49 71 54 / 0 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 44 67 48 71 56 / 0 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 51 65 54 67 58 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...38