347 
FXUS64 KBMX 191727
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1127 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS OUR
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
APPEAR ON SURFACE OBS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. SOME CLOUDS HAVE
STREAMED NORTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DUE TO A BIT MORE MOISTURE BEING AVAILABLE IN THAT
REGION...AND HAVE UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME SCATTERED 
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED HIGHS UP THIS AFTERNOON A 
DEGREE OR TWO AREAWIDE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE 
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. 
UPDATES ARE OUT.

56/GDG 

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DECK OF 
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KTOI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS 
TODAY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY HIGH 
CIRRUS WILL BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WITH 
GENERALLY CALM WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL 
SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH 
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY 
SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY. CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S 
TO UPPER 30S WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH CLEAR 
SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S. 

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST 
PERIOD...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK 
WEEK...AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. 
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA 
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER 
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT 
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A 
PIECE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING NORTHEAST OF ALASKA. THIS 
COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 
MID 40S TO MID 50S MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH 
CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S 
ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH 
DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL 
BE AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH...AND OVERNIGHT 
LOWS IN THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. 

WINDS BRIEFLY BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
FRONT...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S. A FRONT 
WITH ONLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DROP 
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS 
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 60 
DEGREES THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT QUITE AS 
STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS HIGH...AND IT WILL SHIFT MORE EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE MIDWEST RATHER THAN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT 
TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 
AND HEADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A RETURN OF 
LIGHT QPF TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  31  56  34  48 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ANNISTON    59  33  59  34  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
BIRMINGHAM  58  34  60  33  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TUSCALOOSA  60  34  61  36  51 /   0   0   0   0   0 
CALERA      58  36  59  37  49 /   0   0   0   0   0 
AUBURN      60  39  62  40  54 /   0   0   0   0   0 
MONTGOMERY  61  37  64  38  55 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TROY        63  35  64  36  57 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. 

&&

$$

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