347 FXUS64 KBMX 191727 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1127 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2013 .UPDATE... FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS OUR WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO APPEAR ON SURFACE OBS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. SOME CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED NORTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DUE TO A BIT MORE MOISTURE BEING AVAILABLE IN THAT REGION...AND HAVE UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED HIGHS UP THIS AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO AREAWIDE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED. UPDATES ARE OUT. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KTOI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY HIGH CIRRUS WILL BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT. 56/GDG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2013/ DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY CALM WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY. CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A PIECE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING NORTHEAST OF ALASKA. THIS COLD AIRMASS AND STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S MONDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BRIEFLY BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S. A FRONT WITH ONLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 60 DEGREES THURSDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS HIGH...AND IT WILL SHIFT MORE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST RATHER THAN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A RETURN OF LIGHT QPF TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 57 31 56 34 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANNISTON 59 33 59 34 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 BIRMINGHAM 58 34 60 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 TUSCALOOSA 60 34 61 36 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 CALERA 58 36 59 37 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 AUBURN 60 39 62 40 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 MONTGOMERY 61 37 64 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 TROY 63 35 64 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 56/14