240 
FXUS62 KJAX 191435
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

.UPDATE...SFC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS
EASTERN NC AND A COASTAL TROUGH THAT CONTINUED TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE NE FL COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
AND A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS/POPS APPEAR ON
TRACK. WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR SE ZONES AND NEAR NIL POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW WEAKENS. 

&&

.AVIATION....
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 2000-3000 FT EXPECTED EARLY TODAY...WHILE LATE 
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WE EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCU TO DEVELOP 
AROUND THE 2500-5000 FOOT RANGE. MAY NEED TO INSERT OCNL PERIOD OF 
MVFR CIGS AT JAX...VQQ...GNV AND CRG PENDING FURTHER VIS SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. (MAYPORT HAS ALREADY REPORTED OVERCAST AT 2400 FT). 
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 
GRADUAL SHIFT TO PREVAILING NE IN THE AFTN HOURS. GUSTS AROUND 20-25 
KT POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 15Z-20Z AT JAX...CRG VQQ AND SSI. OVERALL 
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LOWER AT GNV.  WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 
ABOUT 20Z/21Z. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL CIGS 5000 FEET 
(MAINLY IN NE FL) AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 
06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS PEAKED THIS MORNING AND 
CONTINUE GUSTY WITH WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT REPORTED AT JAX BEACHES
AND ST AUGUSTINE BEACH. THUS...HAVE PUT IN PLACE AN SCA HEADLINE 
NEARSHORE FOR TODAY AND RAN IT THROUGH 7 PM...THOUGH WINDS WILL 
PROBABLY COME DOWN MUCH SOONER. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 5-7 
FT NEARSHORE AND ABOUT 7-10 FT BUT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY COME DOWN THIS 
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SCA OFFSHORE EXTENDED THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS WELL THINKING SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND GIVEN THE LONG FETCH 
OF NE TO E WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLC. BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WORSENING TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE 
OF A DRY COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ELEVATED SURF AND 
LONG PERIOD EAST/NORTHEAST SWELL. MODERATE RISK TONIGHT...BECOMING 
LOW ON SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO WEAK OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  43  68  40 /   0   0   0   0 
SSI  61  50  64  49 /  10  10   0   0 
JAX  68  48  71  47 /  10  10   0   0 
SGJ  67  55  68  54 /  20  10  10  10 
GNV  71  48  72  48 /  10   0   0   0 
OCF  73  52  73  50 /  10   0  10  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL 
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA 
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE 
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO 
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

PP/ARS/AW