240 FXUS62 KJAX 191435 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 930 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013 .UPDATE...SFC ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN NC AND A COASTAL TROUGH THAT CONTINUED TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS ALONG THE NE FL COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND A CU FIELD TO DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS/POPS APPEAR ON TRACK. WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES AND NEAR NIL POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW WEAKENS. && .AVIATION.... FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 2000-3000 FT EXPECTED EARLY TODAY...WHILE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WE EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATOCU TO DEVELOP AROUND THE 2500-5000 FOOT RANGE. MAY NEED TO INSERT OCNL PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT JAX...VQQ...GNV AND CRG PENDING FURTHER VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. (MAYPORT HAS ALREADY REPORTED OVERCAST AT 2400 FT). NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO PREVAILING NE IN THE AFTN HOURS. GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 15Z-20Z AT JAX...CRG VQQ AND SSI. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LOWER AT GNV. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER ABOUT 20Z/21Z. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL CIGS 5000 FEET (MAINLY IN NE FL) AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. && .MARINE...WINDS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS PEAKED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE GUSTY WITH WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT REPORTED AT JAX BEACHES AND ST AUGUSTINE BEACH. THUS...HAVE PUT IN PLACE AN SCA HEADLINE NEARSHORE FOR TODAY AND RAN IT THROUGH 7 PM...THOUGH WINDS WILL PROBABLY COME DOWN MUCH SOONER. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND ABOUT 7-10 FT BUT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY COME DOWN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SCA OFFSHORE EXTENDED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL THINKING SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND GIVEN THE LONG FETCH OF NE TO E WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLC. BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WORSENING TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ELEVATED SURF AND LONG PERIOD EAST/NORTHEAST SWELL. MODERATE RISK TONIGHT...BECOMING LOW ON SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO WEAK OFFSHORE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 65 43 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 61 50 64 49 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 68 48 71 47 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 67 55 68 54 / 20 10 10 10 GNV 71 48 72 48 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 73 52 73 50 / 10 0 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL- FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS. GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. && $$ PP/ARS/AW