124 
FXUS63 KTOP 190542
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SUSTAINED 
GENERALLY AT 20-25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-40 MPH...AS 
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS 
GRADIENT HAS BEEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. 

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN 
AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD 
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PASSING 
LOW WILL DRAG A BOUNDARY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING 
AND PROGRESS EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL 
REMAIN DRY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT CAN EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT 
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL 
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS 
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. 

ACH 

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LONGER WAVE LENGTH TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP 
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

A COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN 
KS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER AS THE 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS. HIGHS WILL 
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EXTREME 
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

GARGAN

MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...

QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING TEMPERATURES MONDAY 
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE 1030 MB HIGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST 
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD EVENING OVER NORTHEAST 
KANSAS. WHILE THE COLDEST AIR WILL LIE JUST EAST OF THE AREA...H85 
TEMPS IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE LOW AND MID 
TEENS MONDAY EVENING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RESTRICTING HIGHS 
FROM THE LOW 30S FOR FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...TO NEAR 40 DEGREES 
TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AS 
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN IN THE 40S WED AND 50S 
BY THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD 
TRAILING A COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST 
CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR 
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BOWEN


&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AND
LIGHTEN...BEFORE NEXT PUSH COMES THROUGH AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND
SHIFTS WINDS NORTHWEST.  67



&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$