124 FXUS63 KTOP 190542 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 1142 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2013 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SUSTAINED GENERALLY AT 20-25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-40 MPH...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS GRADIENT HAS BEEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PASSING LOW WILL DRAG A BOUNDARY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AND PROGRESS EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT CAN EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. ACH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... A LONGER WAVE LENGTH TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. GARGAN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY... QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING TEMPERATURES MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE 1030 MB HIGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD EVENING OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE THE COLDEST AIR WILL LIE JUST EAST OF THE AREA...H85 TEMPS IN THE -5 TO -8 C RANGE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE LOW AND MID TEENS MONDAY EVENING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RESTRICTING HIGHS FROM THE LOW 30S FOR FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...TO NEAR 40 DEGREES TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN IN THE 40S WED AND 50S BY THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD TRAILING A COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOWEN && .AVIATION... SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AND LIGHTEN...BEFORE NEXT PUSH COMES THROUGH AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND SHIFTS WINDS NORTHWEST. 67 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$