741 
FXUS62 KJAX 142004
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
304 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC RIDGING (1026
MILLIBARS) CENTERED BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA. TO OUR
WEST...A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS CREATING
MODERATE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOCALLY. ALOFT...ROBUST
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD
INTO THE THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS AT JACKSONVILLE (PREVIOUS RECORD OF 81
DEGREES ESTABLISHED IN 1888) AND AT ALMA (79 DEGREES SET IN 2007).
GAINESVILLE (84 DEGREES SET IN 1947) WILL LIKELY MISS THEIR DAILY
RECORD BY A FEW DEGREES. AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS A SPRING- LIKE FLAT CUMULUS FIELD...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF
THICKER CIRRUS STREAMING OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE SINCE THE WEEKEND...THE ONLY FEATURES OF NOTE ON
RADAR ARE PRESCRIBED FIRES...TODAY IN PUTNAM COUNTY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
MODEL SOUNDINGS PROJECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
SPEEDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND LESS MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST
PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND
THUS HAVE LEFT FOG IN THE GRIDS AFTER 06Z. SEA FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO SE
GEORGIA AND POSSIBLY EXPAND SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

A STAGNANT...AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK...AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING PERSISTS OVER OUR AREA AND
TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION ONLY
SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVENT THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVY BOUNDARY FROM ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUR REGION DRY IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
TUESDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUING AS HIGHS APPROACH 80
INLAND AND REMAIN IN THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES DUE TO AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST.

A SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF FROM THE LARGE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY GIVE THE
SURFACE FRONT A KICK SOUTHEASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE DRAWS NEARER AND PROVIDES MORE ASCENT...WE WILL KEEP
LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
THROUGH SE GEORGIA ON WED. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S
IN SE GEORGIA ON WED...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ONE MORE DAY IN
NE FLORIDA. POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER NE FLORIDA
ON WED NIGHT. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN NE
FLORIDA...GENERALLY NEAR 60 DEGREES. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN INTERIOR SE GEORGIA...BUT LOWS WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO CLOUDS...GENERALLY NEAR 50 INLAND AND 55
AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURS AND THURS NIGHT. POPS WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS
INTO NORTHEAST FL. A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
ALONG THE FRONT ON THURS...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S
OVER SE GEORGIA...WHILE SPRINGLIKE READINGS PERSIST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SE GEORGIA. THE
12Z ECMWF INDICATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
STALLED OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE FRI
AND SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEARLY REGION-WIDE THROUGH SAT. WE DID LOWER
HIGHS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY...AS NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S IN SOUTHEAST GA...RANGING TO THE LOWER
60S IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO FROM SAT THROUGH MON...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND HAVE KEPT A DECREASING
TREND IN POPS FOR SUN AND LEFT MON DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILS FOR REST OF TODAY...THEN EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
REDUCE VSBY TO  MVFR AFTER 06Z ALONG THE EAST COAST AND IFR AT GNV
UNTIL 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
PATCHY SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES THU
NIGHT/FRI WHEN A CONVERGENT NE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: DUE TO LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS...A MODERATE RISK
IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  81  56  76 /   0  10  20  30 
SSI  58  75  59  74 /   0  10  10  20 
JAX  56  81  57  80 /   0  10  10  10 
SGJ  58  78  59  77 /   0   0   0  10 
GNV  54  82  55  81 /   0   0   0  10 
OCF  56  83  57  82 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/TRABERT/WALKER