741 FXUS62 KJAX 142004 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 304 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013 ...NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .CURRENTLY... AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC RIDGING (1026 MILLIBARS) CENTERED BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA. TO OUR WEST...A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS CREATING MODERATE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOCALLY. ALOFT...ROBUST DEEP LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS SITUATED FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD INTO THE THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS AT JACKSONVILLE (PREVIOUS RECORD OF 81 DEGREES ESTABLISHED IN 1888) AND AT ALMA (79 DEGREES SET IN 2007). GAINESVILLE (84 DEGREES SET IN 1947) WILL LIKELY MISS THEIR DAILY RECORD BY A FEW DEGREES. AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SPRING- LIKE FLAT CUMULUS FIELD...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF THICKER CIRRUS STREAMING OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE THE WEEKEND...THE ONLY FEATURES OF NOTE ON RADAR ARE PRESCRIBED FIRES...TODAY IN PUTNAM COUNTY. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... MODEL SOUNDINGS PROJECT MODERATE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LESS MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND THUS HAVE LEFT FOG IN THE GRIDS AFTER 06Z. SEA FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO SE GEORGIA AND POSSIBLY EXPAND SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE 55-60 RANGE. A STAGNANT...AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING PERSISTS OVER OUR AREA AND TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVENT THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVY BOUNDARY FROM ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT OUR REGION DRY IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR TUESDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUING AS HIGHS APPROACH 80 INLAND AND REMAIN IN THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES DUE TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF FROM THE LARGE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY GIVE THE SURFACE FRONT A KICK SOUTHEASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THIS SHORTWAVE DRAWS NEARER AND PROVIDES MORE ASCENT...WE WILL KEEP LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH SE GEORGIA ON WED. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S IN SE GEORGIA ON WED...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR ONE MORE DAY IN NE FLORIDA. POPS SLOWLY INCREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER NE FLORIDA ON WED NIGHT. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN NE FLORIDA...GENERALLY NEAR 60 DEGREES. SLIGHT COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN INTERIOR SE GEORGIA...BUT LOWS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO CLOUDS...GENERALLY NEAR 50 INLAND AND 55 AT THE COAST. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURS AND THURS NIGHT. POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS INTO NORTHEAST FL. A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT ON THURS...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S OVER SE GEORGIA...WHILE SPRINGLIKE READINGS PERSIST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SE GEORGIA. THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE FRI AND SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS NEARLY REGION-WIDE THROUGH SAT. WE DID LOWER HIGHS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR FRIDAY...AS NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S IN SOUTHEAST GA...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS NEAR CLIMO FROM SAT THROUGH MON...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND HAVE KEPT A DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR SUN AND LEFT MON DRY. && .AVIATION... VFR PREVAILS FOR REST OF TODAY...THEN EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR AFTER 06Z ALONG THE EAST COAST AND IFR AT GNV UNTIL 14Z. && .MARINE... PATCHY SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES THU NIGHT/FRI WHEN A CONVERGENT NE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. RIP CURRENTS: DUE TO LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS...A MODERATE RISK IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 55 81 56 76 / 0 10 20 30 SSI 58 75 59 74 / 0 10 10 20 JAX 56 81 57 80 / 0 10 10 10 SGJ 58 78 59 77 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 54 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 56 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ NELSON/TRABERT/WALKER