748 
FXUS63 KICT 011210
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
610 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

PRIMARY HAZARD THIS MORNING IS CIG-RELATED WITH ALL OF SC & SE KS
~1,000FT TIL ~20Z WHEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE REALIZED. SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THAT 4-5SM VSBYS (-SN) SHOULD LINGER OVER MOST AREAS TIL ~18Z. CIGS
WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITOR AS SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE PAINTING
A MORE OMINOUS SCENARIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TEMPS 
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS.

SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE 
AREA ON MON EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN IA INTO NM. MEANWHILE ANOTHER 
IMPULSE IS DIVING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND IS NOW 
SITUATED OVER WY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW IS 
DIVING SOUTH OVER CA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHERN MN INTO NW KS WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED WAY DOWN OVER 
SOUTH TX.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE SMALL BAND 
OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINING NEAR KSLN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS 
AND MAY END UP CANCELING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
OVERNIGHT...SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW AFFECTED PARTS OF SOUTH 
CENTRAL KS WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINING UP OVER 
CENTRAL KS NEAR THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE WE WERE SEEING 
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS AGO...IT APPEARS THE 
LOWER LEVELS HAVE COOLED ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW.

SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PERSIST THIS MORNING 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER 
IMPULSE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH. ALSO NOTICED THE 
NAM HAS A COLD POCKET ALONG THE 280K SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH 18Z WHICH MAY KEEP SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AROUND. NOT 
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY 
HIGH THAT MAXES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL 
AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY 
IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT 
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE WED. THIS PATTERN 
WILL ALLOW THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS 
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS.

WED-THU:
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THESE PERIODS AS UPPER RIDGING 
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE AREA SANDWICHED 
BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL 
CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SO THE MAIN STORY FOR BOTH 
OF THESE DAYS WITH BE THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH 
HIGHS ON THU NOT EXPECTED TO TOP THE FREEZING MARK. EVEN WITH A FEW 
UPPER IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE 
WAY OF PRECIP DUE TO THE BETTER MOISTURE BEING PUSHED EAST. 

FRI-MON:
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THESE 
EXTENDED PERIODS WHICH DOES LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE. IT APPEARS 
THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS BY SAT. AT THE SAME TIME A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 
NEITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE AREA PRECIP. SO THE 
MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS 
WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN HAZARDS: LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. 

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT
WITHIN MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. FLURRIES OR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH INCLUDING ICT AND CNU. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE NW-SE MIDDAY INTO THE PM HOURS TUESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE SETS IN. 

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  14  36  15 /  20   0   0   0 
HUTCHINSON      26  13  34  13 /  30  10   0   0 
NEWTON          27  13  34  13 /  30  10   0   0 
ELDORADO        28  14  35  14 /  20  10   0   0 
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  16  38  16 /  20   0   0   0 
RUSSELL         24   9  29   7 /  40  10  10   0 
GREAT BEND      25  10  31   9 /  50  10   0   0 
SALINA          26  10  31   8 /  40  10  10   0 
MCPHERSON       26  13  33  12 /  40  10   0   0 
COFFEYVILLE     32  17  40  18 /  20   0   0   0 
CHANUTE         30  14  37  14 /  20   0   0   0 
IOLA            29  14  35  14 /  20  10   0   0 
PARSONS-KPPF    31  16  40  16 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$