748 FXUS63 KICT 011210 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 610 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013 .AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU PRIMARY HAZARD THIS MORNING IS CIG-RELATED WITH ALL OF SC & SE KS ~1,000FT TIL ~20Z WHEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE REALIZED. SECONDARY CONCERN IS THAT 4-5SM VSBYS (-SN) SHOULD LINGER OVER MOST AREAS TIL ~18Z. CIGS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITOR AS SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE PAINTING A MORE OMINOUS SCENARIO FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2013/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS. SYNOPSIS: IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON MON EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN IA INTO NM. MEANWHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE IS DIVING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND IS NOW SITUATED OVER WY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW IS DIVING SOUTH OVER CA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO NW KS WITH THE COLD FRONT LOCATED WAY DOWN OVER SOUTH TX. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THE SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINING NEAR KSLN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY END UP CANCELING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TODAY-TONIGHT: OVERNIGHT...SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW AFFECTED PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINING UP OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE WE WERE SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS AGO...IT APPEARS THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE COOLED ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PERSIST THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER IMPULSE TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH. ALSO NOTICED THE NAM HAS A COLD POCKET ALONG THE 280K SURFACE MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH 18Z WHICH MAY KEEP SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AROUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH THAT MAXES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNRISE WED. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WED-THU: THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THESE PERIODS AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SO THE MAIN STORY FOR BOTH OF THESE DAYS WITH BE THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS ON THU NOT EXPECTED TO TOP THE FREEZING MARK. EVEN WITH A FEW UPPER IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIP DUE TO THE BETTER MOISTURE BEING PUSHED EAST. FRI-MON: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WHICH DOES LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE. IT APPEARS THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. AT THE SAME TIME A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE AREA PRECIP. SO THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LAWSON AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU MAIN HAZARDS: LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH IFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT WITHIN MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. FLURRIES OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH INCLUDING ICT AND CNU. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE NW-SE MIDDAY INTO THE PM HOURS TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN. JMC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 28 14 36 15 / 20 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 26 13 34 13 / 30 10 0 0 NEWTON 27 13 34 13 / 30 10 0 0 ELDORADO 28 14 35 14 / 20 10 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 30 16 38 16 / 20 0 0 0 RUSSELL 24 9 29 7 / 40 10 10 0 GREAT BEND 25 10 31 9 / 50 10 0 0 SALINA 26 10 31 8 / 40 10 10 0 MCPHERSON 26 13 33 12 / 40 10 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 32 17 40 18 / 20 0 0 0 CHANUTE 30 14 37 14 / 20 0 0 0 IOLA 29 14 35 14 / 20 10 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 31 16 40 16 / 20 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$