388 
FXUS62 KMHX 281204
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
705 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL 
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE ALONG THE COAST 
SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY 
AND EXTEND OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY 
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. CI CONTINUING TO 
SPREAD IN FROM W-SW AND FCST ON TRACK. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SHRT WV RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES OVER 
AREA WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL DAY. SOME GRADUAL INCREASE 
IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF SHRT WV TROF APPROACHING FROM 
W. RISING LOW LVL THICKNESSES DURING DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE 
SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 50...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 40S NRN OBX DUE 
TO COOL NRLY WINDS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON INCREASING MSTR AND 
ISENT LIFT OVER AREA TONIGHT AS SHRT WV TROF MOVES IN FROM 
W...LEADING TO WARM FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN COASTAL SECTIONS AS 
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THREAT OF PCPN 
BY MORNING...BUT BLEND SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS AFTER 3 AM PER PREIVIOUS 
FCST. INCREASING WAA OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS DURING 
EVENING...THEN STEADY OR RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING THE TREND
OF A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTING THE NC COAST
SATURDAY. EXPECT THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY
MORNING AS GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW AND BEST FORCING SPREADS OVER
EASTERN NC. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL
DRYING MOVES IN. THE RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW FOR PRECIP WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER AMOUNTS INLAND. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING SO CONTINUE NO TSTM MENTION ALTHO SOME SCT ACTIVITY CUD
DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. HIGH
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60F ALONG THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR AND
COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S THEN RISING TO A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 50F ON MONDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 20S WITH 30S AT
THE COAST.

THE FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY REMAINS PROBLEMATIC
BUT MID RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH A POSSIBLY UNSETTLED MIDWEEK PERIOD. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY AND ON HOW TO
HANDLE MOISTURE RETURN/PRECIP CHCS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY MOVES NE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME
BEST PRECIP CHANCES (STILL CAPPING AT SLIGHT/LOW CHANCES GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY) AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY TEMPORARILY
RAMPING DOWN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON WED...THEN
INCREASING POPS AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU WHEN MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BLO NORMAL ESPECIALLY WED AND
THU ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALTHO NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE
COOL (MAINLY 30S)...TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE LONGER RANGE DO
NOT SUPPORT PTYPE ISSUES AS YET.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRI...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH 
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MID 
CLOUDS IN AFTN. SCU CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EVENING AS WARM 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM S...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AS RAIN DEVELOPES 
09Z-12Z. 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES 
THRU THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING 
AS THE LOW MOVES NE SAT AFTN. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE WEATHER. PRECIP 
MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY WITH SOME SUB 
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. BUOY 44100..10 NE OF 
DUCK..RECENTLY REPORTING 5.5 FT SEAS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE 
SHORT-LIVED WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH...AND WILL NOT REISSUE 
SCA. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS 
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES IN FROM W. 
LIGHTEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH CENTER TRAVERSES 
AREA...THEN INCREASING SE-S WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WARM 
FRONT MOVING IN FROM S. 

00Z WW3 INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SKIRT OR MOVE JUST OFF OF THE 
COAST SATURDAY PRODUCING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS IN 
THE PREFRONTAL SW FLOW. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY CONDITIONS MORE 
LIKELY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE STRONG POSTFROTNAL NW FLOW AND 
MAY SEE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS 
HIGH AS 7-9 FT OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS 
WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TOWARD THE SW AHEAD OF 
THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE. 

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...JBM/BTC