388 FXUS62 KMHX 281204 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 705 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND EXTEND OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. CI CONTINUING TO SPREAD IN FROM W-SW AND FCST ON TRACK. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SHRT WV RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES OVER AREA WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FAIR AND COOL DAY. SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF SHRT WV TROF APPROACHING FROM W. RISING LOW LVL THICKNESSES DURING DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 50...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 40S NRN OBX DUE TO COOL NRLY WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON INCREASING MSTR AND ISENT LIFT OVER AREA TONIGHT AS SHRT WV TROF MOVES IN FROM W...LEADING TO WARM FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN COASTAL SECTIONS AS SFC RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THREAT OF PCPN BY MORNING...BUT BLEND SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS AFTER 3 AM PER PREIVIOUS FCST. INCREASING WAA OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS DURING EVENING...THEN STEADY OR RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING THE TREND OF A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTING THE NC COAST SATURDAY. EXPECT THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING AS GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW AND BEST FORCING SPREADS OVER EASTERN NC. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. THE RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW FOR PRECIP WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER AMOUNTS INLAND. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING SO CONTINUE NO TSTM MENTION ALTHO SOME SCT ACTIVITY CUD DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THEN RISING TO A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 50F ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 20S WITH 30S AT THE COAST. THE FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY REMAINS PROBLEMATIC BUT MID RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POSSIBLY UNSETTLED MIDWEEK PERIOD. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY AND ON HOW TO HANDLE MOISTURE RETURN/PRECIP CHCS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY MOVES NE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME BEST PRECIP CHANCES (STILL CAPPING AT SLIGHT/LOW CHANCES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY) AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY TEMPORARILY RAMPING DOWN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON WED...THEN INCREASING POPS AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU WHEN MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BLO NORMAL ESPECIALLY WED AND THU ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALTHO NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE COOL (MAINLY 30S)...TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE LONGER RANGE DO NOT SUPPORT PTYPE ISSUES AS YET. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... AS OF 630 AM FRI...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MID CLOUDS IN AFTN. SCU CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EVENING AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM S...WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AS RAIN DEVELOPES 09Z-12Z. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING AS THE LOW MOVES NE SAT AFTN. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE WEATHER. PRECIP MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY WITH SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ATTM. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. BUOY 44100..10 NE OF DUCK..RECENTLY REPORTING 5.5 FT SEAS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH...AND WILL NOT REISSUE SCA. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES IN FROM W. LIGHTEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH CENTER TRAVERSES AREA...THEN INCREASING SE-S WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM S. 00Z WW3 INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SKIRT OR MOVE JUST OFF OF THE COAST SATURDAY PRODUCING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW FLOW. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE STRONG POSTFROTNAL NW FLOW AND MAY SEE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 7-9 FT OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TOWARD THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...BTC/JME AVIATION...JBM/BTC MARINE...JBM/BTC