833 
FXUS64 KHGX 150321
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
921 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS HAD WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE NW TO THE BIG COUNTRY. SOLID MOISTURE AXIS RAN FROM W OK
THROUGH C TX AND THEN TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND. EXPECT TEMPS
TONIGHT TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE A DECREE OR TWO. THAT IS TO
SAY THAT MIN TEMPS FOR SAT MORNING WILL BE REACHED AT MIDNIGHT
WITH WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING.

STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL DRAG A FRONT TOWARDS
SE TX BY SAT MORNING. MAY SEE A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THINK TX TECH HIGH RES WRF HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO. THINK NAM RIGHT ON ITS HEALS. THIS MEANS
BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND TAPERING OFF SAT AFTERNOON.
MODELS SEEM ON TRACK WITH FRONT STALLING AND MOVING NORTH A TOUCH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MAKING MORE OF A PUSH LATE SUN AND OFF THE COAST
SUN NIGHT OR MON MORNING. LIKE THE TRENDS WITH POPS AND DID SOME
RE-ALIGNING TO MATCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS A LITTLE BETTER. THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN MOISTURE LEVELS
BUT WITH MOD/SVR DROUGHT...GROUNDS LIKELY HANDLE HEAVY PRECIP
EXCEPT FOR THE CONCRETE AREAS AROUND HOUSTON. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY THAT MAY
DEVELOP. MODELS SHOW A BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA TUE. SFC RIDGE MOVES E QUICKLY WITH RETURN FLOW WED.
MODELS SHOW NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A BIT MORE CANADIAN AIR
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MAY HAVE STRONG ENOUGH CAP AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP WITH 20 POPS FOR
NOW. END OF NEXT WEEK AND THE WEEKEND BEFORE CHRISTMAS MAY
ACTUALLY FEEL NORMAL.

39

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT WITH BUOY 42019
SHOWING 21 GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WITH 6 FOOT SEAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WINDS NOW QUITE AS STRONG UP THE COAST WITH GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS AT 42035 WITH 3 FOOT SEAS. IN GENERAL THINK THE SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LOOKING GOOD FOR MOST ZONES WITH A GENERAL
15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED...BUT CONDITIONS MORE IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA 20 TO 60 NM ZONE AS
INDICATED CURRENTLY BY BUOY 42019. GRADIENT AND WINDS SOMEWHAT
WEAKER GALVESTON BAY SO NO HEADLINE AT ALL THERE FOR NOW. LOOKING
AHEAD COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
OFFSHORE FLOW...ONSHORE FLOW THEN RETURNING BY TUESDAY. 46

&&

.AVIATION...
WARM MOIST AIR RIDING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE IS
PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
THE LOWER DECK OCCURING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AT LBX...GLS AND
NOW HOU AND SGR WHERE VFR CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE WITH A SCATTERED
LOWER DECK. THINK WILL SEE THE MVFR CEILINGS BECOME REESTABLISHED
AT THOSE SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE
NORTHERN SITES...CXO...UTS AND POSSIBLY CLL. BEST CHANCE OF
MEASUSRABLE RAIN WILL BE OVERNIGHT AT CLL AS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY STORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MORE SHOWERS IN VCNTY OF
AIRPORTS ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  73  60  73  46 /  40  40  40  60  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  77  64  77  53 /  20  30  30  60  20 
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  73  66  73  59 /  20  20  20  60  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT 
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH 
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO 
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 
     20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39