833 FXUS64 KHGX 150321 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 921 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012 .DISCUSSION... EVENING SFC ANALYSIS HAD WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE NW TO THE BIG COUNTRY. SOLID MOISTURE AXIS RAN FROM W OK THROUGH C TX AND THEN TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND. EXPECT TEMPS TONIGHT TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE A DECREE OR TWO. THAT IS TO SAY THAT MIN TEMPS FOR SAT MORNING WILL BE REACHED AT MIDNIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL DRAG A FRONT TOWARDS SE TX BY SAT MORNING. MAY SEE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THINK TX TECH HIGH RES WRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO. THINK NAM RIGHT ON ITS HEALS. THIS MEANS BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND TAPERING OFF SAT AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM ON TRACK WITH FRONT STALLING AND MOVING NORTH A TOUCH OVERNIGHT BEFORE MAKING MORE OF A PUSH LATE SUN AND OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT OR MON MORNING. LIKE THE TRENDS WITH POPS AND DID SOME RE-ALIGNING TO MATCH HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS A LITTLE BETTER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN MOISTURE LEVELS BUT WITH MOD/SVR DROUGHT...GROUNDS LIKELY HANDLE HEAVY PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE CONCRETE AREAS AROUND HOUSTON. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. MODELS SHOW A BRIEF COOL DOWN MAINLY DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TUE. SFC RIDGE MOVES E QUICKLY WITH RETURN FLOW WED. MODELS SHOW NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A BIT MORE CANADIAN AIR FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MAY HAVE STRONG ENOUGH CAP AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW. END OF NEXT WEEK AND THE WEEKEND BEFORE CHRISTMAS MAY ACTUALLY FEEL NORMAL. 39 && .MARINE... MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT WITH BUOY 42019 SHOWING 21 GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WITH 6 FOOT SEAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS NOW QUITE AS STRONG UP THE COAST WITH GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT 42035 WITH 3 FOOT SEAS. IN GENERAL THINK THE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LOOKING GOOD FOR MOST ZONES WITH A GENERAL 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED...BUT CONDITIONS MORE IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE FOR THE FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA 20 TO 60 NM ZONE AS INDICATED CURRENTLY BY BUOY 42019. GRADIENT AND WINDS SOMEWHAT WEAKER GALVESTON BAY SO NO HEADLINE AT ALL THERE FOR NOW. LOOKING AHEAD COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY OFFSHORE FLOW...ONSHORE FLOW THEN RETURNING BY TUESDAY. 46 && .AVIATION... WARM MOIST AIR RIDING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE IS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOWER DECK OCCURING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AT LBX...GLS AND NOW HOU AND SGR WHERE VFR CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE WITH A SCATTERED LOWER DECK. THINK WILL SEE THE MVFR CEILINGS BECOME REESTABLISHED AT THOSE SITES...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE NORTHERN SITES...CXO...UTS AND POSSIBLY CLL. BEST CHANCE OF MEASUSRABLE RAIN WILL BE OVERNIGHT AT CLL AS LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MORE SHOWERS IN VCNTY OF AIRPORTS ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. 46 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 73 60 73 46 / 40 40 40 60 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 65 77 64 77 53 / 20 30 30 60 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 65 73 66 73 59 / 20 20 20 60 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...39