076 
FXUS64 KMAF 091042
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE. STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED
STRONG THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS OVERNIGHT SO DECIDED TO START THE
HIGH WARNING THIS MORNING INSTEAD OF THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TAP TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE. AS OF 09Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH AMARILLO
AND SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID MORNING THEN FINALLY
EXITING THE SOUTHERN ZONES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER EXPECT READINGS TO DECREASE ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS 
WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W SWINGING THROUGH 
NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS HAS INCREASED SOME CONCERN 
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING DUST MAINLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE 
PERMIAN BASIN REGION. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH GUSTING 
TO NEAR 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND AS 
MENTIONED BEFORE THERE IS A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY 
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN 
PERMIAN BASIN. A LIGHT DUSTING COULD BE POSSIBLE UP NEAR ARTESIA AND 
TATUM...OTHERWISE NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AVAILABLE 
MOISTURE STILL LACKING SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. 

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE 
REGION AND WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO 
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND WINDS WILL 
THEN DECREASE AREAWIDE. MONDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH AFTERNOON 
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE FAR 
SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD MORNING TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY 
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO 
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST 
AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT 
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK 
WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN PROGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SWING THROUGH 
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY WHICH MAY INDUCE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS 
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STAY TUNED...AS THIS 
FEATURE IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  25  45  23  /   0  10  10   0 
BIG SPRING TX              58  26  45  23  /   0  10  10   0 
CARLSBAD NM                62  24  47  23  /   0  10  10   0 
DRYDEN TX                  74  35  50  31  /   0   0  10   0 
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  27  46  26  /   0  10  10   0 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  22  44  27  /   0  10   0   0 
HOBBS NM                   53  22  44  20  /   0  10  10   0 
MARFA TX                   65  23  46  19  /   0  10  10   0 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  25  43  21  /   0  10  10   0 
ODESSA TX                  63  26  45  22  /   0  10  10   0 
WINK TX                    67  26  50  22  /   0  10  10   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... BIG BEND AREA...PECOS...TERRELL.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.


&&

$$

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