076 FXUS64 KMAF 091042 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 442 AM CST SUN DEC 9 2012 .DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE. STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED STRONG THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS OVERNIGHT SO DECIDED TO START THE HIGH WARNING THIS MORNING INSTEAD OF THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TAP TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. AS OF 09Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH AMARILLO AND SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BY MID MORNING THEN FINALLY EXITING THE SOUTHERN ZONES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM UP BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER EXPECT READINGS TO DECREASE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W SWINGING THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS HAS INCREASED SOME CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING DUST MAINLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN REGION. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH GUSTING TO NEAR 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND AS MENTIONED BEFORE THERE IS A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. A LIGHT DUSTING COULD BE POSSIBLE UP NEAR ARTESIA AND TATUM...OTHERWISE NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL LACKING SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE REGION AND WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AREAWIDE. MONDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD MORNING TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY MID WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN PROGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SWING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY WHICH MAY INDUCE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STAY TUNED...AS THIS FEATURE IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 54 25 45 23 / 0 10 10 0 BIG SPRING TX 58 26 45 23 / 0 10 10 0 CARLSBAD NM 62 24 47 23 / 0 10 10 0 DRYDEN TX 74 35 50 31 / 0 0 10 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 70 27 46 26 / 0 10 10 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 22 44 27 / 0 10 0 0 HOBBS NM 53 22 44 20 / 0 10 10 0 MARFA TX 65 23 46 19 / 0 10 10 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 62 25 43 21 / 0 10 10 0 ODESSA TX 63 26 45 22 / 0 10 10 0 WINK TX 67 26 50 22 / 0 10 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY. TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... BIG BEND AREA...PECOS...TERRELL. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. && $$ 72/27