543 
FXUS61 KCAR 070037
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
737 PM EST THU DEC 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
SLIDING EAST OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN SLIDE EAST ALONG THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES DOWN BY 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD AS LATEST READING INDICATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO FALL BACK EVEN MORE BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN TO CAP A FURTHER 
DROP. STILL LOOKING FOR LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE UPPER
TEENS CENTRAL TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE
HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY
SHARPLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO LEVEL OUT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 RANGE NORTH AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
SOUTH.

EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FRIDAY AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN.
HOWEVER AT THIS POINT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
MAINLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON A SOUTHERLY
WIND AND REACH THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH WHERE THERE
WILL BE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN VERY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, LOOK 
FOR RELATIVELY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE. A WEAK
SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS DOWNEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GOING
WITH LIKELY POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST BUT LESSER POPS NORTHWARD.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE, WITH POSSIBLY A ZONE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER CENTRAL AREAS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF THERE IS
ANY AT ALL.

THE FIRST SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY, BUT A BIT OF A STRONGER 
SYSTEM WILL SKIM THE NORTH/WEST PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF
NOTABLY WEAK. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, ONLY WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
AREA WIDE FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND AS RAIN PERHAPS CHANGING
TO SNOW EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR 
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE SUNDAY 
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS 
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL ENABLE WARM AIR TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN 
NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE LOW. THEREFORE, WHILE PRECIPITATION IS 
EXPECTED TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT, A BAND OF 
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE 
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT RIDES UP AND 
OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX 
WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE 
WARM AIR FINALLY WINS OUT OVER THE COLD, THOUGH THE SAINT JOHN 
VALLEY MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY NON-FREEZING RAIN. ONCE 
THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, MUCH COLDER AIR 
WILL RUSH INTO THE AREA, TURNING THE RAIN BACK OVER TO SNOW FROM 
NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. THE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE LATER
TUESDAY; THE 06/12Z GFS SETTLES THIS BIG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
06/12Z ECMWF POSITIONS THE HIGH JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH, OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WHICH THEN ALLOWS
LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE FROM THE NEW JERSEY COAST NORTHEASTWARD TO
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS LATTER PATTERN WOULD BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST OCCURRING DOWNEAST.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.


SHORT TERM: EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER AREAWIDE WITH PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY MVFR BUT PROBABLY SOME IFR
AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR IFR ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON SUNDAY. MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT PERHAPS KPQI, KCAR, AND ESPECIALLY KFVE. A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL TURN THE RAIN BACK OVER
TO SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
MORNING AND COME TO AN END TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS AND WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/FOISY