543 FXUS61 KCAR 070037 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 737 PM EST THU DEC 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST OVERNIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN SLIDE EAST ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 730 PM UPDATE... ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPERATURES DOWN BY 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS LATEST READING INDICATE. TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FALL BACK EVEN MORE BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN TO CAP A FURTHER DROP. STILL LOOKING FOR LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE UPPER TEENS CENTRAL TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY SHARPLY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO LEVEL OUT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 10 TO 15 RANGE NORTH AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S SOUTH. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FRIDAY AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MAINLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON A SOUTHERLY WIND AND REACH THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN VERY LATE IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, LOOK FOR RELATIVELY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE. A WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS DOWNEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GOING WITH LIKELY POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST BUT LESSER POPS NORTHWARD. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE, WITH POSSIBLY A ZONE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER CENTRAL AREAS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL. THE FIRST SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY, BUT A BIT OF A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SKIM THE NORTH/WEST PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF NOTABLY WEAK. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, ONLY WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND AS RAIN PERHAPS CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES UP ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL ENABLE WARM AIR TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE LOW. THEREFORE, WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT, A BAND OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT RIDES UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE WARM AIR FINALLY WINS OUT OVER THE COLD, THOUGH THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY NON-FREEZING RAIN. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE AREA, TURNING THE RAIN BACK OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. THE FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE LATER TUESDAY; THE 06/12Z GFS SETTLES THIS BIG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 06/12Z ECMWF POSITIONS THE HIGH JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH, OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WHICH THEN ALLOWS LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE FROM THE NEW JERSEY COAST NORTHEASTWARD TO NOVA SCOTIA. THIS LATTER PATTERN WOULD BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST OCCURRING DOWNEAST. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER AREAWIDE WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY MVFR BUT PROBABLY SOME IFR AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR IFR ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON SUNDAY. MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT PERHAPS KPQI, KCAR, AND ESPECIALLY KFVE. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL TURN THE RAIN BACK OVER TO SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND COME TO AN END TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON SUNDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/FOISY