931 
FXUS62 KMHX 291109
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
709 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHWEST TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 6 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HURRICANE SANDY ABOUT
285 MILES E OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
CONTINUES OVER THE SW CWA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES
OVER THE NORTHERN OBX THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN CWA...NORTH OF
HWY 264 ESP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SO UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY
BUT STILL KEPT IN CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...CLOUDY SKIES...AND STRONG NW/W WINDS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS
TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM MON...GOOD MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO WRAP AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF SANDY TONIGHT...WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN CWA. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE ESP FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 FOR THE OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS 300 AM MONDAY...WITH CIRCULATION OF SANDY LINGERING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...EXPECT WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO
LINGER. MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. WILL LIKELY BE
GOING WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING NEAR THE COAST AND WIND ADVISORY
OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES TUESDAY GIVEN VERY STRONG GRADIENT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SANDY. WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY THEN DROP
OFF DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...MODEL TIME SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE
CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO LINGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SUNSHINE
FINALLY RETURNS ON THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING
COLD FRONT BRING ADDITIONAL COOL AIR TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH STRONG THICKNESS ADVECTION INDICATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE SOME UPPER 30S TO POSSIBLE MIDDLE 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND
AREAS...WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MIST.
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRYING TODAY WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE CEILINGS LIFTING BY
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AFTER 20Z TODAY. CEILINGS
COULD DROP BACK DOWN TO MVFR OR LOWER TONIGHT BUT WILL SIDE WITH
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND KEEP CLOUDS BASES AND VISIBILITIES AT VFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT THROUGH THE
EVENING. 

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS. DRY AIR MIXES DOWN
FROM ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THESE DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 6 AM MON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS
THIS MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOWS N/NW WINDS 25-35KT WITH GUSTS
40-45KT...HIGHEST FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS STILL NORTH OF
OCRACOKE 20-25FT...AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF
10-15FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER RIGHT OFF THE COAST WITH STRONG OFFSHORE
WIND. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS SANDY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION COUPLED WITH STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS. STILL EXPECT TROPICAL
STORM FORCE/GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

NEUSE/PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVERS COULD SEE SOME BLOW OUT TIDE ISSUES
TODAY AS STRONG NW/W WINDS DEVELOP. 

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF SANDY WILL
LEAD TO GALE CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLOWLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN
HIGH WITH A LIKELYHOOD CONTINUING OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND
OCEAN OVERWASH ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN BEACHES TUESDAY INTO
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS SANDY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM WITH ITS HUGE CIRCULATION AFFECTING MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 6 AM MON...MODERATE TO HIGH COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. STRONG/GUSTY NW/W WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS TC
SANDY LIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NC COAST.

AREAS ALONG THE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS AND
OCRACOKE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 7 FEET
ABOVE GROUND. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND...THE WATER LEVELS
HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

FOR AREAS ON THE OCEANSIDE...NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED OR INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND AND NORTH OF CAPE 
LOOKOUT EXPECT 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND WITH SIGNIFICANT BREAKING 
WAVES CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION. 

PLEASE SEE HLSMHX FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ046-047-080-081-093>095-098-103-
     104. 
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158. 
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...CTC/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...