931 FXUS62 KMHX 291109 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 709 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHWEST TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 6 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HURRICANE SANDY ABOUT 285 MILES E OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES OVER THE SW CWA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN OBX THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN CWA...NORTH OF HWY 264 ESP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SO UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL KEPT IN CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...CLOUDY SKIES...AND STRONG NW/W WINDS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 340 AM MON...GOOD MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF SANDY TONIGHT...WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE ESP FOR THE OUTER BANKS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 FOR THE OUTER BANKS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS 300 AM MONDAY...WITH CIRCULATION OF SANDY LINGERING NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...EXPECT WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO LINGER. MAIN STORY FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. WILL LIKELY BE GOING WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING NEAR THE COAST AND WIND ADVISORY OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES TUESDAY GIVEN VERY STRONG GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF SANDY. WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY THEN DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...MODEL TIME SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE CLOUDINESS LIKELY TO LINGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNS ON THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT BRING ADDITIONAL COOL AIR TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH STRONG THICKNESS ADVECTION INDICATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SOME UPPER 30S TO POSSIBLE MIDDLE 30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS...WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST FORMATION. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 710 AM MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MIST. TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME DRYING TODAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE CEILINGS LIFTING BY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AFTER 20Z TODAY. CEILINGS COULD DROP BACK DOWN TO MVFR OR LOWER TONIGHT BUT WILL SIDE WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND KEEP CLOUDS BASES AND VISIBILITIES AT VFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT THROUGH THE EVENING. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS. DRY AIR MIXES DOWN FROM ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THESE DAYS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 6 AM MON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WATERS THIS MORNING. LATEST OBS SHOWS N/NW WINDS 25-35KT WITH GUSTS 40-45KT...HIGHEST FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS STILL NORTH OF OCRACOKE 20-25FT...AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15FT...SLIGHTLY LOWER RIGHT OFF THE COAST WITH STRONG OFFSHORE WIND. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AS SANDY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION COUPLED WITH STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS. STILL EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE/GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. NEUSE/PAMLICO/PUNGO RIVERS COULD SEE SOME BLOW OUT TIDE ISSUES TODAY AS STRONG NW/W WINDS DEVELOP. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF SANDY WILL LEAD TO GALE CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH WITH A LIKELYHOOD CONTINUING OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND OCEAN OVERWASH ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN BEACHES TUESDAY INTO POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS SANDY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH ITS HUGE CIRCULATION AFFECTING MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 6 AM MON...MODERATE TO HIGH COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. STRONG/GUSTY NW/W WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS TC SANDY LIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NC COAST. AREAS ALONG THE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS AND OCRACOKE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 7 FEET ABOVE GROUND. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND...THE WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. FOR AREAS ON THE OCEANSIDE...NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS SHOULD BE PREPARED OR INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND AND NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT EXPECT 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND WITH SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVES CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION. PLEASE SEE HLSMHX FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ046-047-080-081-093>095-098-103- 104. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103. MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/CQD NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/JME MARINE...CTC/CQD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...