742 
FXUS64 KCRP 270903
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
403 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A NW FLOW ALOFT AND A SHALLOW 
DOME OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS 
KEEP LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN CWA THIS MORNING. BASED ON FCST 
SOUNDINGS AND THE THICK CLOUD COVER...THINK WE MAY SEE A FEW 
SPRINKLES BUT NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED 
THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THIS MORNING. MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN 
WILL THE SUN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS WHICH IN TURN WILL EFFECT 
TODAY'S HIGHS. KEPT WITH THE TREND OF CLOUDS BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE 
NE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY 
SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHS WHICH WERE CLOSE 
TO GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE ERN CWA COULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS 
IF THE CLOUDS SCT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS WINDS BECOME 
LIGHT AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE...ESPECIALLY THE NE CWA. MORE SUN 
ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT 
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE NE THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC 
HIGH BEGINS TO MV EAST. 

&&

.MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST 
TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE 
BAYS LATER THIS MORNING THEN ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE NRN GULF WILL 
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS DIMINISH TO WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON AND VEER TO THE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL EXIST IN THE LONG TERM...IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
DOWN TO REFUGIO COUNTY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPING
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL SLOWLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH READINGS BACK AROUND
90 DEGREES FOR LAREDO AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. GFS STILL SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT THINK IT IS OVERDOING MOISTURE RETURN.
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  49  72  46  74  /  10   0   0   0   0 
VICTORIA          65  42  70  41  72  /  10   0   0   0   0 
LAREDO            66  50  74  52  78  /  10   0   0   0   0 
ALICE             65  46  72  45  75  /  10   0   0   0   0 
ROCKPORT          67  50  71  48  74  /  10   0   0   0   0 
COTULLA           64  46  71  43  74  /  10   0   0   0   0 
KINGSVILLE        66  48  72  45  75  /  10   0   0   0   0 
NAVY CORPUS       66  54  71  53  73  /  10   0   0   0   0 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY 
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS 
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT 
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT 
     O'CONNOR.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM