742 FXUS64 KCRP 270903 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 403 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2012 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A NW FLOW ALOFT AND A SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS KEEP LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN CWA THIS MORNING. BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND THE THICK CLOUD COVER...THINK WE MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THIS MORNING. MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE SUN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS WHICH IN TURN WILL EFFECT TODAY'S HIGHS. KEPT WITH THE TREND OF CLOUDS BECOMING SCT ACROSS THE NE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGHS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE ERN CWA COULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IF THE CLOUDS SCT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE...ESPECIALLY THE NE CWA. MORE SUN ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE NE THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO MV EAST. && .MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE BAYS LATER THIS MORNING THEN ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE NRN GULF WILL INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS DIMINISH TO WEAK/MOD LEVELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND VEER TO THE NE. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST IN THE LONG TERM...IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DOWN TO REFUGIO COUNTY. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW SLOWLY DEVELOPING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH READINGS BACK AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR LAREDO AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. GFS STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT THINK IT IS OVERDOING MOISTURE RETURN. OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 49 72 46 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 VICTORIA 65 42 70 41 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 LAREDO 66 50 74 52 78 / 10 0 0 0 0 ALICE 65 46 72 45 75 / 10 0 0 0 0 ROCKPORT 67 50 71 48 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 COTULLA 64 46 71 43 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 66 48 72 45 75 / 10 0 0 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 66 54 71 53 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM TT/89...LONG TERM