457 
FXUS62 KMHX 122329
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
726 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM FRI...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS NEXT FEW 
HOURS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. DRY COLD FRONT BNDRY MOVING 
OVER EXTREME SRN SECTIONS WITH CAA SURGE SPREADING S ALONG COAST. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...DRY COLD FRONT IS REACHING NRN TIER EARLY
THIS AFTN AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY
HAVE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS SRN TIER AND ONCE THESE SLIDE
SOUTHEAST EXPECT MAINLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SHLD BE ENOUGH OF A
GRDNT TO KEEP N/NE WINDS GOING ALL NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM REALLY DROPPING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 45 INLAND TO
MID/UPR 50S BEACHES WHERE WIND WL BE BLOWING OFF WARM WTR. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HGTS WL BE RISING SAT HOWEVER LOW LVL NE
FLOW EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES AXIS REMAINS TO THE W. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 65 TO
70 DGR RANGE. WILL BE A DECENT NE BREEZE MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND SRN BEACHES. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THROUGH THE
LONG TERM BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYTIME TEMPS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SAT EVENING WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING REPLACED BY AN
APPROACHING AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH BY SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE NEAR 1380 METERS SUN WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BUILDING
TEMPS BACK INTO MID TO UPPER 70S.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST MON AND CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING/NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING ONLY MODERATE COLUMN
MOISTENING WITH PW'S BRIEFLY PEAKING AROUND 1 TO 1.25" EARLY MON
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP SLT CHC POPS MON TO
LOW CHC MON EVENING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TUES INTO
MIDDLE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. TEMP
FORECAST APPEARS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR MID
OCTOBER...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER FOR EASTERN NC LOOKS TO BE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT AND WILL LIMIT
POPS TO LOW CHANCE AT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF 
AREA AND HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM N-NW OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT. 
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL SKIRT N OF AREA NEXT FEW 
HOURS...THEN CLEAR REST OF PERIOD. COMBO OF MIXING AND LOWERING 
DEWPTS SHLD KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME WIND 
GUSTS AOA 15KTS SATURDAY AT EWN AND OAJ WITH DECENT GRDNT CONT ALONG 
THE CST. 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUN WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH AND DIMINISHING. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF FOG FOR SAT NIGHT OR SUN NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS
AND SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING BY MON 
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ONLY MODERATE COLUMN MOISTENING AND EXPECT
AVIATION CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM FRI...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. POST-FRONTAL CAA SURGE 
SCA WINDS DEVELOPING OVER NRN WATERS AND ON TRACK TO SPREAD S NEXT 
FEW HOURS. 

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS CURRENTLY WILL BECOME MORE 
NW TO N AND INCREASE FROM N TO S LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING IN WAKE 
OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK FROM THE N/NE OVERNIGHT AS CAA
CONTS WITH TIGHT GRDNT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SEAS
WILL PEAK AT 6 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT. WL CONT SCA ALL WTRS
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH GRAD BUILDS
CLOSER SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SCA ENDING ON THE SOUND BY NOON
AND OTHER WTRS DURING THE AFTN AS WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR SEAS TO
COME DOWN. 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY...GENERALLY BLO 15 KNOTS. SE WINDS EXPECTED SUN
SHIFTING SW BY MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS LIKELY
BY TUES AS STRONG NORTHERLY CAA SURGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. 12Z WAVEWATCH III BUILDS SEAS
QUICKLY ABOVE 6 FT LATE MON NIGHT...PEAKING AROUND 6-9 FT TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES NIGHT WITH INCOMING SWELL FROM A TROPICAL
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COMBINING
WITH THE NLY WIND SURGE. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE STILL DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS PRODUCED BY WAVEWATCH.
FOR THIS PACKAGE BLENDED 2/3RDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 1/3
WAVEWATCH TO OBTAIN SEAS UP TO 6 FT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS IN WED WITH NLY WINDS AOB 10 KT SHIFTING TO ELY WED
NIGHT WHILE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE RACING TOWARD THE GRAND
BANKS AND EXPECTED SEAS TO HAVE SUBSIDED TO AOB 5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT 
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT 
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT 
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT 
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK/DAG
AVIATION...RF/SK/DAG
MARINE...JBM/RF/SK/DAG