457 FXUS62 KMHX 122329 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 726 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM FRI...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK. DRY COLD FRONT BNDRY MOVING OVER EXTREME SRN SECTIONS WITH CAA SURGE SPREADING S ALONG COAST. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...DRY COLD FRONT IS REACHING NRN TIER EARLY THIS AFTN AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS SRN TIER AND ONCE THESE SLIDE SOUTHEAST EXPECT MAINLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SHLD BE ENOUGH OF A GRDNT TO KEEP N/NE WINDS GOING ALL NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 45 INLAND TO MID/UPR 50S BEACHES WHERE WIND WL BE BLOWING OFF WARM WTR. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HGTS WL BE RISING SAT HOWEVER LOW LVL NE FLOW EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES AXIS REMAINS TO THE W. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DGR RANGE. WILL BE A DECENT NE BREEZE MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 PM FRI...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYTIME TEMPS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT EVENING WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEING REPLACED BY AN APPROACHING AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH BY SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE NEAR 1380 METERS SUN WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BUILDING TEMPS BACK INTO MID TO UPPER 70S. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MON AND CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING/NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING ONLY MODERATE COLUMN MOISTENING WITH PW'S BRIEFLY PEAKING AROUND 1 TO 1.25" EARLY MON EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP SLT CHC POPS MON TO LOW CHC MON EVENING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TUES INTO MIDDLE WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. TEMP FORECAST APPEARS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR MID OCTOBER...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S. THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER FOR EASTERN NC LOOKS TO BE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW CHANCE AT TIME. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF AREA AND HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM N-NW OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH SHRT WV WILL SKIRT N OF AREA NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN CLEAR REST OF PERIOD. COMBO OF MIXING AND LOWERING DEWPTS SHLD KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS AOA 15KTS SATURDAY AT EWN AND OAJ WITH DECENT GRDNT CONT ALONG THE CST. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH AND DIMINISHING. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG FOR SAT NIGHT OR SUN NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING BY MON AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ONLY MODERATE COLUMN MOISTENING AND EXPECT AVIATION CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 630 PM FRI...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. POST-FRONTAL CAA SURGE SCA WINDS DEVELOPING OVER NRN WATERS AND ON TRACK TO SPREAD S NEXT FEW HOURS. /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS CURRENTLY WILL BECOME MORE NW TO N AND INCREASE FROM N TO S LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK FROM THE N/NE OVERNIGHT AS CAA CONTS WITH TIGHT GRDNT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 6 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT. WL CONT SCA ALL WTRS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH GRAD BUILDS CLOSER SAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SCA ENDING ON THE SOUND BY NOON AND OTHER WTRS DURING THE AFTN AS WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR SEAS TO COME DOWN. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY...GENERALLY BLO 15 KNOTS. SE WINDS EXPECTED SUN SHIFTING SW BY MON AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS LIKELY BY TUES AS STRONG NORTHERLY CAA SURGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. 12Z WAVEWATCH III BUILDS SEAS QUICKLY ABOVE 6 FT LATE MON NIGHT...PEAKING AROUND 6-9 FT TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES NIGHT WITH INCOMING SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COMBINING WITH THE NLY WIND SURGE. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE STILL DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AND SUBSEQUENTLY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS PRODUCED BY WAVEWATCH. FOR THIS PACKAGE BLENDED 2/3RDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 1/3 WAVEWATCH TO OBTAIN SEAS UP TO 6 FT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS IN WED WITH NLY WINDS AOB 10 KT SHIFTING TO ELY WED NIGHT WHILE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE RACING TOWARD THE GRAND BANKS AND EXPECTED SEAS TO HAVE SUBSIDED TO AOB 5 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/JBM SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...SK/DAG AVIATION...RF/SK/DAG MARINE...JBM/RF/SK/DAG