466 
FXUS61 KCAR 051637
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1237 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IS STILL SHOWING SUNSHINE BREAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THESE BREAKS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, ERODING
THE LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY
COVER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.  

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
AND EXPECT AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE TO
THE EAST. VERY WEAK RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION BRIEFLY LATER IN THE MORNING THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT AND APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM12
     GFS40....SREF AND ECMWF. WILL THEN MAKE SOME MINOR MANUAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS. HAVE USED THE LAMP25
VISIBILITY GRIDS TO DELINEATE AREAS OF FOG. FOR QPF HAVE USED
SIMILAR BLEND AS POPS EXCEPT WILL USE NAM80 IN PLACE OF NAM12.
HAVE BLENDED THE GMOS AND NAM12 FOR WIND GRIDS. WILL USE THE GMOS
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A GRADUAL COOLDOWN WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE IS
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING AIDED BY A LOW/MID LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS
TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THIS IS A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT THAT
WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO THIS SETUP INCLUDING THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. THEREFORE, RAISED THE POPS UP TO
CATEGORICAL VALUES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN RAINFALL EXITS
THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF NERFC/HPC AND GFS FOR QPF INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH SHOWS RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSING IN ON
.25-.50" FOR THE CWA. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF CROSSES THE
REGION. THIS UPPER TROF COULD VERY WELL SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING AND THEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS SET TO WORK IN
OVERNIGHT. ATTM, NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOWS UP IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SET FOR SUNDAY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS W/HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LOW
PRES APCHS FROM THE MID ATLC STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS WAS STATED BY THE DAYCREW, CONDITIONS UPCOMING FOR THIS TERM
WILL BE MORE AUTUMN-LIKE.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL AND THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SHOW THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE MID ATLC REGION TO
PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS NOW
COME IN LINE MORE W/THE CANADIAN AND GFS SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM
AS THE UPPER TROF IS MORE BROAD ALLOWING FOR A FASTING MOVING
SYSTEM. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP THE DAYCREW'S THINKING OF
KEEPING LIKELY POPS(60%) ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS
INTO MONDAY MORNING & CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. 925MB
TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BE AROUND 0C
ACROSS THE W AND FAR NW EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN W/THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS(>/=1500FT). DECIDED TO CARRY A MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW IN
THESE AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. 

ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THIS WILL STAY RIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK W/DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BACKED AWAY FROM THE COLDER GMOS AT NIGHT AND HAS BEEN
THE CASE THIS WEEK, DECIDED TO USE THE 09Z TEMPERATURES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF COULD AFFECT
THE REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
FOR THE W AND NW AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS SHOWN TO
ARRIVE W/THIS SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THIS W/LATER
MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MVFR CONDIONS LATER THIS
MORNING AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE BACK TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR SATURDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY W/A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE MID
ATLC REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND
GFS40. FOR WAVES: CURRENT WNA SPECTRAL INDICATING A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM OF 1FOOT/8-9 SECONDS AND A SECOND SHORTER
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE FIELD OF 2/FEET 6-7 SECONDS. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS OF WAVE HEIGHT AND SPECTRAL DENSITY FROM 44027
SUPPORT THIS BUT SHORTER PERIOD WAVE GROUP LOOKS A LITTLE TOO
HIGH. SO WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH NAM/SWAN BUT KEEP MAXIMUM
COMBINED SEA AT 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.


SHORT TERM: WE COULD BE SEEING SCA CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS A DECENT 35-40KT LLVL JET MOVING OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE WATERS. WIND GUSTS COULD HIT25-40 KTS FOR A SHORT TIME
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO APCH 6 FT. WNAWAVE WAS SHOWING SEAS
HITTING 7FT, BUT THIS LOOKED TOO HIGH AND THEREFORE, UNDERCUT THE
VALUES BY A FOOT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT,
THINGS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS RIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE
MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT