466 FXUS61 KCAR 051637 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1237 PM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IS STILL SHOWING SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE. THESE BREAKS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND EXPECT AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE EAST. VERY WEAK RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRIEFLY LATER IN THE MORNING THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT AND APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. FOR POPS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM12 GFS40....SREF AND ECMWF. WILL THEN MAKE SOME MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS. HAVE USED THE LAMP25 VISIBILITY GRIDS TO DELINEATE AREAS OF FOG. FOR QPF HAVE USED SIMILAR BLEND AS POPS EXCEPT WILL USE NAM80 IN PLACE OF NAM12. HAVE BLENDED THE GMOS AND NAM12 FOR WIND GRIDS. WILL USE THE GMOS FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A GRADUAL COOLDOWN WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE IS STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING AIDED BY A LOW/MID LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS IS A WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT THAT WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO THIS SETUP INCLUDING THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. THEREFORE, RAISED THE POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL VALUES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN RAINFALL EXITS THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF NERFC/HPC AND GFS FOR QPF INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHICH SHOWS RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSING IN ON .25-.50" FOR THE CWA. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN BEGINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. THIS UPPER TROF COULD VERY WELL SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND THEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS SET TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT. ATTM, NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOWS UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SET FOR SUNDAY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS W/HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS WAS STATED BY THE DAYCREW, CONDITIONS UPCOMING FOR THIS TERM WILL BE MORE AUTUMN-LIKE. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL AND THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOW THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE MID ATLC REGION TO PASS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME IN LINE MORE W/THE CANADIAN AND GFS SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROF IS MORE BROAD ALLOWING FOR A FASTING MOVING SYSTEM. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP THE DAYCREW'S THINKING OF KEEPING LIKELY POPS(60%) ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS INTO MONDAY MORNING & CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BE AROUND 0C ACROSS THE W AND FAR NW EARLY MONDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN W/THE RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS(>/=1500FT). DECIDED TO CARRY A MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW IN THESE AREAS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS WILL STAY RIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK W/DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BACKED AWAY FROM THE COLDER GMOS AT NIGHT AND HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WEEK, DECIDED TO USE THE 09Z TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY. THE THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF COULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW FOR THE W AND NW AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE W/THIS SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THIS W/LATER MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MVFR CONDIONS LATER THIS MORNING AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN THE BACK TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR SATURDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY W/A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE MID ATLC REGION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. FOR WAVES: CURRENT WNA SPECTRAL INDICATING A LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST WAVE SYSTEM OF 1FOOT/8-9 SECONDS AND A SECOND SHORTER PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE FIELD OF 2/FEET 6-7 SECONDS. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF WAVE HEIGHT AND SPECTRAL DENSITY FROM 44027 SUPPORT THIS BUT SHORTER PERIOD WAVE GROUP LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH. SO WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH NAM/SWAN BUT KEEP MAXIMUM COMBINED SEA AT 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: WE COULD BE SEEING SCA CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A DECENT 35-40KT LLVL JET MOVING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS. WIND GUSTS COULD HIT25-40 KTS FOR A SHORT TIME AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO APCH 6 FT. WNAWAVE WAS SHOWING SEAS HITTING 7FT, BUT THIS LOOKED TOO HIGH AND THEREFORE, UNDERCUT THE VALUES BY A FOOT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT, THINGS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS RIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...HASTINGS/MIGNONE MARINE...HASTINGS/MIGNONE/HEWITT