056 
FXUS64 KMAF 070840
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
340 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PREFER THE QUICKER NAM WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH A QUICKER FRONT 
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS WITH SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. STRONG 850 THERMAL RIDGE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE FRONT WILL
BARREL QUICKLY SOUTH TO MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER A LARGE SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MENTIONED PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS
AT GUADALUPE PASS AS NORTHEAST WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH THAT REGION
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE PASS FROM 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT APPEARS LIKE IT
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS
REGION OF WEST TEXAS AS A WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THOSE REGIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

BY SATURDAY BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND CLOUDS SUGGEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE 80S AREAWIDE. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IN STABLE AIR.

BEYOND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY NEXT FRIDAY
OR NEXT WEEKEND.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                101  62  80  54  /  10  30  20   0 
BIG SPRING TX             103  63  79  55  /  10  20  20   0 
CARLSBAD NM               101  62  76  56  /  20  30  20  10 
DRYDEN TX                 105  66  86  63  /  10  10  20   0 
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  60  81  58  /  10  20  20  10 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  54  71  57  /  20  30  20  10 
HOBBS NM                   98  59  77  51  /  10  40  20   0 
MARFA TX                   94  57  74  51  /  20  20  20  10 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   102  64  80  55  /  10  20  20   0 
ODESSA TX                 101  64  80  56  /  10  20  20   0 
WINK TX                   103  65  84  55  /  10  20  20  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.


&&

$$

10/12