056 FXUS64 KMAF 070840 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012 .DISCUSSION... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PREFER THE QUICKER NAM WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH A QUICKER FRONT CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS WITH SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG 850 THERMAL RIDGE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE FRONT WILL BARREL QUICKLY SOUTH TO MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER A LARGE SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. MENTIONED PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AT GUADALUPE PASS AS NORTHEAST WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH THAT REGION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE PASS FROM 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT APPEARS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION OF WEST TEXAS AS A WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THOSE REGIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND CLOUDS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE 80S AREAWIDE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IN STABLE AIR. BEYOND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY NEXT FRIDAY OR NEXT WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 101 62 80 54 / 10 30 20 0 BIG SPRING TX 103 63 79 55 / 10 20 20 0 CARLSBAD NM 101 62 76 56 / 20 30 20 10 DRYDEN TX 105 66 86 63 / 10 10 20 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 101 60 81 58 / 10 20 20 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 97 54 71 57 / 20 30 20 10 HOBBS NM 98 59 77 51 / 10 40 20 0 MARFA TX 94 57 74 51 / 20 20 20 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 102 64 80 55 / 10 20 20 0 ODESSA TX 101 64 80 56 / 10 20 20 0 WINK TX 103 65 84 55 / 10 20 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. && $$ 10/12